Re: zum Thema Zinsen und Wirtschaft

verfasst von NickLeeson, 15.06.2000, 15:25

Hallo allerseits,

die Preissteigerungsrate ist ein relativ unwichtiges Kriterium. Entscheidend ist einzig und allein das Kreditwachstum --- und weil Herr Greenspan das scheinbar noch nicht verstanden hat, werden die Amerikaner (und wir auch) einen hohen Preis bezahlen müssen. Der ECB kann man wegen der letzten Zinserhöhung bestimmt keinen Vorwurf machen. Ich möchte in diesem Zusammenhang an die Bubble-Economy im Japan der späten 80er erinnern und dazu aus einem Aufsatz von M. Auerback zitieren:
...The Japanese experience is yet another vivid illustration that there exists a myriad of channels through which changes in asset prices influence changes in macroeconomic performance. As asset bubbles are burst, vicious self-feeding cycles are often set off in both the real economy and the financial system. Yet US policy makers appear extremely reluctant to draw any conclusions from Japan’s own recent history. Even if we were to concede Greenspan’s point on the difficulty of determining the existence of a bubble prospectively (as opposed to retrospectively), the authors urge policy makers to consider the relative economic and social costs of each error:

“Put metaphorically, Type 1 error (erroneously reject a hypothesis when it is true) corresponds to a case where (though a ‘New Economy’ theory may be correct) rejecting the theory means that the central bank erroneously tightens monetary conditions and suppresses economic growth potential. Type II error (failure to reject a hypothesis when it is false) corresponds to a case in which a bubble is mistaken as a transitionary process to a ‘New Economy’, and the central bank allows inflation to ignite. Given that one cannot accurately tell in advance which one of the two statistical errors the central bank is more likely to make, it is important in the conduct of monetary policy to consider not only the probability of making an error but also the relative cost of each error. Based on Japan’s bubble period, it is important for the central bank to recognise that making the Type II error is fatal compared with the Type I error when faced with bubble-like phenomena.”

mfg, NickLeeson

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gesamter Thread:

• Deflation und Preismessung. Aktueller denn je. - Bart, 15.06.2000, 09:43
  • Lächerlich. Alan Greenspan will Europäern beibringen, wie man...mkT - Toro, 15.06.2000, 10:18
    • Re: zum Thema Zinsen und Wirtschaft - NickLeeson, 15.06.2000, 15:25