Re: Greenspan / Das ist es!

verfasst von JüKü, 13.02.2001, 16:42

>Abwaertsrisiken dominieren,so dass US-Wirtschaft sich in 2001 substantiell abschwaechen wird
>Wachstum koennte sich zum Jahreswechsel wegen Korrektur bei Lagerbestaenden abgeflacht haben.
>Die schnellere wirtschaftliche Korrektur hat Fed veranlasst, freuher u. aggressiver zu handeln.
>Abschwaechende Weltwirtschaft koennte sich negativ auf Exporte auswirken
>Einige Teile der Maerkte erholen sich, Anleger sind aber nervoes
>Uebergang zu einem schwaechern Wirtschaftswachstum koennte nicht nahtlos von statten gehen.
>Schwierig fuer geldpolitik mit deutlichen Rueckgang des Verbraucher-u. Geschaeftsvertrauen umzugehen.

Er sagt:
"It is difficult for economic policy to deal with the abruptness of a break in confidence. There may not be a seamless transition from high to moderate to low confidence on the part of businesses, investors, and consumers. Looking back at recent cyclical epi sodes, we see that the change in attitudes has often been sudden. In earlier testimony, I likened this process to water backing up against a dam that is finally breached. The torrent carries with it most remnants of certainty and euphoria that built up in earlier periods.

This unpredictable rending of confidence is one reason that recessions are so difficult to forecast. They may not be just changes in degree from a period of economic expansion, but a different process engendered by fear. Our economic models have never been particularly successful in capturing a process driven in large part by nonrational behavior."

Und bitte lesen, was er am 27.08.99 gesagt hat:
http://www.juekue.de/greenspan.htm

Auszug:
~"But history suggests that they also reflect waves of optimism and pessimism that can be touched off by seemingly small exogenous events."
~"An individual's degree of risk aversion may vary through time and possibly be subject to herd instincts."
~"... like so many other aspects of human nature, has not materially changed over the generations."
~"It has become evident time and again that when events are unexpected, more complex, and move more rapidly than is the norm, human beings become less able to cope. The failure to be able to comprehend external events almost invariably induces fear and, hence, disengagement from an activity, whether it be entering a dark room or taking positions in markets. And attempts to disengage from markets that are net long--the most general case--means bids are hit and prices fall."
~"...especially when investors hold highly leveraged positions..."
~"But from time to time, this process has broken down as investors suffer an abrupt collapse of comprehension of, and confidence in, future economic events. It is almost as though, like a dam under mounting water pressure, confidence appears normal until the moment it is breached."
~"Risk aversion in such an instance rises dramatically, and deliberate trading strategies are replaced by rising fear-induced disengagement. Yield spreads on relatively risky assets widen dramatically."

Und jetzt:

~"History tells us that sharp reversals in confidence happen abruptly, most often with little advance notice. These reversals can be self-reinforcing processes that can compress sizable adjustments into a very short time period. Panic market reactions are characterized by dramatic shifts in behavior to minimize short-term losses. Claims on far-distant future values are discounted to insignificance. What is so intriguing is that this type of behavior has characterized human interaction with little appreciable difference over the generations. Whether Dutch tulip bulbs or Russian equities, the market price patterns remain much the same."

Damals hat ihn niemand verstanden....


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gesamter Thread:

• Greenspan - almoehi, 13.02.2001, 16:15
  • Re: Greenspan / Rede schon im Netz mL - JüKü, 13.02.2001, 16:24
    • Re: Solch ein Schwachsinn! Greenspan muss entmündigt werden! - dottore, 13.02.2001, 17:09
      • Köstlich! - Ihre Kommentare meine ich natürlich! Danke für die Erklärungen.:-)) - Gruß, ufi, 13.02.2001, 17:20
      • Re: Solch ein Schwachsinn! Greenspan muss entmündigt werden! - jefra, 13.02.2001, 17:32
        • Re: Solch ein Schwachsinn! Greenspan muss entmündigt werden! - dottore, 13.02.2001, 22:37
          • Re: Solch ein Schwachsinn! Greenspan muss entmündigt werden! - jagg, 13.02.2001, 22:51
            • Re: Solch ein Schwachsinn! Greenspan muss entmündigt werden! - dottore, 13.02.2001, 23:13
              • Re: Solch ein Schwachsinn! Greenspan muss entmündigt werden! - jagg, 13.02.2001, 23:26
                • Re: Vern hatte ich übersehen, sorry! Wird nachgeholt. (owT) - dottore, 13.02.2001, 23:33
                  • Re: Vern hatte ich übersehen, sorry! Wird nachgeholt.. Fein... - jagg, 13.02.2001, 23:37
          • Re: Solch ein Schwachsinn! Greenspan muss entmündigt werden! / dottore - JüKü, 13.02.2001, 22:52
            • Re: Greenspan muss entmündigt werden! DUPLIK! - dottore, 13.02.2001, 23:25
              • Re: Greenspan muss entmündigt werden! DUPLIK! - JüKü, 13.02.2001, 23:47
              • Re: Greenspan muss entmündigt werden! DUPLIK! - Cujo, 13.02.2001, 23:49
      • Dottore in Hochform! So mögen wir ihn! oT. - BossCube, 13.02.2001, 18:04
      • Nein. Trotz allem - Maesze! - Hardy, 13.02.2001, 18:29
        • Re: Doppel-Nein! Der Mann is over the cliff - merkt das keiner?! - dottore, 13.02.2001, 21:30
  • Re: Greenspan Teil 2 - almoehi, 13.02.2001, 16:29
    • Guter Service, vielen Dank - Rumpelstilzchen, 13.02.2001, 16:37
      • Re: Guter Service, vielen Dank - almoehi, 13.02.2001, 17:33
    • Re: Greenspan Teil 2 - Hardy, 13.02.2001, 16:47
  • Re: Greenspan - Hardy, 13.02.2001, 16:34
  • Re: Greenspan / Das ist es! - JüKü, 13.02.2001, 16:42