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Mix-Ansicht- Daily Sentiment Report (ist lesenswert) - bullbull, 21.02.2001, 10:13
Daily Sentiment Report (ist lesenswert)
WONDER ANALYSTS
Apparently, none of the aforementioned statistics have been enough to
scare anybody. It certainly hasn't been enough to worry most of the
Wall Street seers. Their average recommended stock allocation has
been around 68 or 69 percent so far this year. In contrast, the
average allocation was only 63 percent to stocks in early September
2000 and merely 61 percent in March 2000. Rather than tempering their
enthusiasm, the only thing this market decline has done so far is to
cause them to brighten their outlooks.
NEWSLETTER IN THE DARK
The weekly poll of newsletter sentiment conducted by Investors
Intelligence shows similar results. The most recent poll stands at
57.8 percent bullish and 30.4 percent bearish. During the market
pullbacks in April 1997 and September 1998, the percentage of bears
greatly exceeded the percentage of bulls and broke above 40 percent
each time. Just one week ago, the percentage of bulls polled was 61.8
percent. This was the highest reading of percentage bulls in this
sentiment poll in over 14 years! That is worth repeating. This was
the highest reading of percentage bulls in this sentiment poll in over
14 years! That means that the public pool of newsletter writers was
at its most euphoric after the COMP had been cut in half. Even amateur
contrarians know that there is only one way to read that sentiment.
If the market forms a long-term bottom with sentiment readings this
optimistic, it will be the first time in history.
CROUCHING PUT/CALL RATIO
Two other quantified sentiment indicators (with shorter-term orientations)
are starting to exhibit some disturbing patterns as well. As mentioned
in last week's Monday Morning Outlook, the CBOE equity put/call ratio
was starting to post some higher readings. In fact, this past Friday's
reading of this ratio's 21-day moving average had risen to 0.56 from 0.52
on the previous Friday. The last two times this ratio formed a local
bottom and reversed upward were in mid-September and mid-November 2000.
The COMP lost 800 points during the month after both of those dates.
HIDDEN VIX
The other disturbing pattern can be seen in the CBOE Market Volatility
Index (VIX - 25.08). This index is used as a sentiment indicator because
it is a"fear gauge" formed by the implied volatilities of S&P 100 Index
(OEX - 675.42) options and generally moves inversely to the stock markets.
After being contained by its descending 10-day and 20-day moving averages
for more than five weeks, the VIX finally made its first break above these
trendlines last Friday. A similar formation was seen from late July and
August of last year, when the VIX first broke above these resistance lines
on September 5. The market's poor performance after that date has been
well documented in the preceding paragraphs. What may be the biggest
concern with the VIX now is that the decline in July/August occurred during
a market rally. This latest VIX decline has been during a FLAT market
environment. It seems that the only people who are scared are contrarians
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