Mal ein paar Zahlen

verfasst von R.Deutsch, 24.02.2001, 12:57

The Hemingway Table

US Financial Markets
Topic du Jour






Current Economic Snapshot February 2001 - And You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet!!!!

This executive summary on the current state of the Economy is made for the 21st century manager,
who needs hard data in a short and comprehensible format.


General Commentary:

Just in case the reader thought that the BLS was the only agency cooking the books with funny
definitions, in the following lines you will discover that the FED has embarked on a major M3
correction of the Money stock figures for 2000 going as far back as 1980. They reviewed and
modified the benchmarks and the seasonal factors used to compute the Money stock.

For 2000, the revisions raised the annual growth rates of M2 and M3 by 0.2 percentage point.
The revisions to seasonal factors lowered M2 growth rates in the first two quarters of 2000 and
raised them in the last two quarters. The revisions to seasonal factors also reduced the M3 growth
rate in the first quarter of 2000, but increased growth in the final three quarters of the year.

Therefore, do not be surprised to see that the rate of change of M3 growth has diminished from a
previous 20% growth rate to current 15.5% for the last 10 weeks.

January saw CATASTROPHIC and UNBELIEVABLE increases in Crude Materials and Crude Energy
Materials Inflation, in the order of 13.94 % and 25.02 %.
This is a ONE MONTH INFLATION FIGURE AND IT IS NOT ANNUALIZED.
THE AUTHOR IS NOT CONFUSED OR OTHERWISE.

If you doubt these numbers, please feel free to verify them at the BLS site, under
PPI-Commodities.

During December and January the manufacturers and producers got a double whammy apparently
due to the hedonic manipulation of the figures by the previous administration.

How could it be that in 2 months we got a combined 23.59% inflation in Crude Materials and 43.47%
in Crude Energy Materials?

It appears that this is an impossible reality to the author, unless the books were cooked beforehand
and they are being corrected now. As the author is mystified specially after the brutal Saddamization
that oil prices took in December, the author will welcome another explanation to try to elucidate this
most mysterious matter, as it is highly unlikely that GAS can account for all of these increases.

These wild fluctuations in the economy, specially if next month's are on the downside, will tend to
destroy the little fabric of common sense left in the economic system.

No wonder Corporations are having trouble making profits if they are absorbing most of these costs
!!!!

And the author thought that December was bad....He hadn't seen nothing yet!!!!

Next step is to pass on the costs to the consumer, courtesy of the FED and the previous
Administration's policies.


Money Supply for January 2001:

M3 up 97.9 billion or 1.38% in the 1 month period (16.57% yearly rate) to 7,188.4 billion from
7,090.5 billion.

M3 monthly yearly growth rates:

January 16.57%

M3 average yearly growth rate January 2000 - January 2001 INCREASED to 9.49% from previous
month's 8.68 % rate.

Runaway M3 inflation for January at a monthly annualized rate of 16.57%.
Without the FED's recent correction, this figure would be around 20%.


GDP:

As per Mr. Greenspan's comments, GDP growth is about stalled right now.
A few essays ago, we were discussing the issue that hidden inflation would have tremendous
negative effects in the future GDP, as it became visible.
Q1 GDP growth should come in the range of about 0.6% - 0.9%.


Public Debt for End January 2001

HIGHER debt from 5,662 billion to 5,716 billion. The debt was higher by 54 billion during the last
month. The Treasury has apparently been servicing the growth of debt by about 61 billion during the
month.


Goods and Services Trade Deficit December 2000:

December's Goods and Services Trade Deficit came flat as compared to November at $33.0 billion
versus a $33.1 billion (revised) in November.
Imports and Exports decreased for a 3rd consecutive month.

2000 Goods and Services Deficit rose to $369.7 billion from $265 billion in 1999, for an increase of
39.51%.

Exports increased $112.2 billion in 2000 to $1,068.4 billion.
Imports increased $216.9 billion in 2000 to $1,438.1 billion.

The goods deficit with Japan Increased from $73.4 billion in 1999 to $81.3 billion in 2000.
The goods deficit with W. Europe Increased from $47 billion in 1999 to $59.8 billion in 2000.
The goods deficit with China Increased from $68.7 billion in 1999 to $83.8 billion in 2000.

2001 Yearly projected deficit stands at $395 billion, based on the flattening of the last quarter, for an
expected increase of 6.8%.


Inflation:

The Crude Raw materials in the producing chain have increased in price 46.02 % from January 2000
to January 2001. January saw an INCREASE of 13.94 %.

Energy Crude materials have increased in the same period 110.22 %.
January saw an increase of 25.02 %.

All commodities inflation is running at 8.18 % from January 2000 to January 2001, despite the
manipulation of the precious metals markets.

The PPI (Producer Price Index) for January 2001 yearly average stands at 13.68 %.
Core PPI stands at 8.04 % YTD.
January figure stands at 1.14 % rate increase.

The CPI (Consumer Price Index) for January 2001 yearly average stands at 7.56 %.
Core CPI stands at 4.56 % YTD.
January figure stands at 0.63 % rate increase.

Money Supply Inflation from January 2000 - January 2001 is running at 9.49% a year.

ECI Q4 (Employment Cost Indicator) is expected at about 1.2 % or 4.58 % for the year.

The Future Inflation Gauge of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, an index that Mr. Alan
Greenspan is known to monitor, weakened in January again.

The ECRI said that inflationary pressures in the economy appear to be easing as economic activity
continues its downward swing.
The gauge was pulled down in January by slower growth in real estate loans, a drop in purchasing
managers reporting slower deliveries and the return of the yield spread to positive territory.

The smoothed annualized growth rate of the index DECREASED slightly to -12.3% in January, down
from -10.0% in December.

Since 2 month's ago we have warned about Hyper-Inflation. It's first effects have manifested in the
Producer Raw Energy and Materials inputs with scandalous Banana Republic increases in December
and January.
Within a couple of months, these distortions should spill over to the Consumer, as the consumer is
being supplied with a fresh large quantity of newly created M3.


Total Debt and Derivatives:

Total debt for the 12 months from end Dec 1999 to Dec 2000 was up 5.05%, down from previous
month 5.38% rate, from 17,377 billion to 18,254 billion. (Fed Statistics).
This puts the average debt per person at the amazing quantity of $65,975.

Per capita debt INCREASE of $100 this month; this low increase confirms that we are indeed in a
recession/stagflation.

While there are signs of gigantic stresses in the Financial system, it still appears that the
derivatives and debt bubbles have not burst yet, as the FED laboriously injects liquidity and tries to
inflate its way out of trouble.

Perhaps the unprecedented 1% drop in interest rates in January was implemented to prolong the
live of the patient.

Since there is a lot of pain in the market right now, we can only foresee very BAD THINGS
happening from now onwards.


Precious Metals:

Gold has broken on the downside the $260 range for a while as the Anti-Gold forces continue to
operate freely.
However, the Gold Suppressors are being faced with the most powerful array of organized thought
power and actions of Free Men for quite a while.

Foreign gold held at the FED has been dropping, according to their reports.

From January to December 2000 there have been outflows of 355.05 tons.
December gold outflow was 39.77 tons.
Total foreign earmarked gold left in custody: 6,962 tons.
Gold outflow from January 96 to December 2000: 1,658 tons.

Gold Stock of the US, as per the FED report of February 2001, apparently could not escape to the
revisions implemented in the Money Stock.
It is one thing to change the measure of standardless"units of nothing" such as the dollar count, on
the whim of the counting bureaucrat, for one should not be surprised that it changes in quantity if
the definition and/or creation of it escapes the Central Bank's control.
It is quite another to change the measures of one of the spatially densest materials elements known
to man, as these are units of something real and quite precious.

In February the following revisions took place in the reported US Gold Stock including ESF:

1997 Gold stock diminished to 11,047 millions versus 11,050 in January's report.
1998 Gold stock increased to 11,046 millions versus 11,041 in January's report.
1999 Gold stock decreased to 11,048 millions versus 11,089 in January's report.

The difference for 1999 is just a pitiful 30 tons of gold, so who cares if this difference was just
reported in the month of December 1999?

Or better perhaps, could this be an attempt to erase The Smoking Gun?
Or is it some kind of magic trick performed by the Fed ahead of the all important 15th of March
date?

Silver is scarcer than Gold right now.
It is estimated that the US imported 4,360 tons during 2000, up significantly from an estimated 2,660
tons in 1999.
Total Visible estimated stocks in the US went down to 3,200 tons in 2000, down from 3,750 tons in
1999.
This silver run will be like no other run has ever been.......

Currencies:

The Euro is in a trading range of 0.91 to 0.94.
The FED cut the short term and Discount rates a full 1% during January.

The ECB did not lower and maintained their Refinancing rate at 4.75%.
The BOJ did not raise and maintained the overnight call rate at 0.25%.


Oil and Energy:

OPEC is expected to cut production by 1.0 million barrels a day after their March meeting.

All bets are off as the Middle East is a powder keg right now.
Anything is possible since the bombing of Iraq has put Saudi and Kuwait on notice that there could
be some retaliations.

Gas stocks stood at 1.041 trillion CuF by the week ending 9 February, down 26% from a year
earlier. It appears as if gas will reach a bottom of $5 per thousand Cuf, to possibly start a more
steady march to 10 dollars by the end of 2001.

Gas is being blamed for most of the PPI and CPI increases of January.

North America GAINED 50 drilling rigs in January as compared to December.
Total rotary rig count stands now at 1717.
Canada gained 33 up to 579 while the US added 17 rigs up to 1138.
Gas rigs in the US increased 14 to 900 and Oil rigs increased 3 to 237.
US rig increases are concentrated in Texas and California for this month.

International rotary Rig count stood at 717 in December, UP 12 from December figures.
Total Gas rigs UP 4 to 172 and Oil rigs UP 9 to 519.

Latin America down 4, Africa up 3, Middle East up 16, Europe down 2 and Asia Pacific down 1.

US rigs are up 50% from a year ago.
Canada rigs are up 6% from a year ago.
International rigs are up 28% from a year ago.
World rigs up to 2,434 from 1,862 or 31% increase.

New York is building 10 gas fired power plants to cope with the electricity demand peak of the
coming summer.
This summer presages to be a disaster for electricity availability as air conditioners start to be
turned on across the nation, especially in California.
Then, the blame of the high stagflationary environment will most likely be put on gas, electricity
and oil prices.



"Azteca de Oro"


Disclaimer:

The information presented by the author is not intended to be used for investment purposes, and it
may contain errors.
It is intended only to give the reader an eagle's view of the state of the economy and/or energy
markets, as perceived by the author.
It reflects the author's opinion and no representation as to the accuracy of this data and/or opinions
is made, as it may reflect on the bias or interpretation of the author.
However, to the best knowledge of the author, the data presented is accurate.





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gesamter Thread:

• Mal ein paar Zahlen - R.Deutsch, 24.02.2001, 12:57
  • Danke, R.Deutsch.... Link? Ãœbersetzung gefällig? owT - SchlauFuchs, 24.02.2001, 16:23