Danke, R.Deutsch.... Link? Übersetzung gefällig? owT

verfasst von SchlauFuchs, 24.02.2001, 16:23

>
>
> The Hemingway Table
>
> US Financial Markets
> Topic du Jour
>
> Current Economic Snapshot February 2001 - And You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet!!!!
> This executive summary on the current state of the Economy is made for the 21st century manager,
> who needs hard data in a short and comprehensible format.
>
> General Commentary:
> Just in case the reader thought that the BLS was the only agency cooking the books with funny
> definitions, in the following lines you will discover that the FED has embarked on a major M3
> correction of the Money stock figures for 2000 going as far back as 1980. They reviewed and
> modified the benchmarks and the seasonal factors used to compute the Money stock.
> For 2000, the revisions raised the annual growth rates of M2 and M3 by 0.2 percentage point.
> The revisions to seasonal factors lowered M2 growth rates in the first two quarters of 2000 and
> raised them in the last two quarters. The revisions to seasonal factors also reduced the M3 growth
> rate in the first quarter of 2000, but increased growth in the final three quarters of the year.
> Therefore, do not be surprised to see that the rate of change of M3 growth has diminished from a
> previous 20% growth rate to current 15.5% for the last 10 weeks.
> January saw CATASTROPHIC and UNBELIEVABLE increases in Crude Materials and Crude Energy
> Materials Inflation, in the order of 13.94 % and 25.02 %.
> This is a ONE MONTH INFLATION FIGURE AND IT IS NOT ANNUALIZED.
> THE AUTHOR IS NOT CONFUSED OR OTHERWISE.
> If you doubt these numbers, please feel free to verify them at the BLS site, under
> PPI-Commodities.
> During December and January the manufacturers and producers got a double whammy apparently
> due to the hedonic manipulation of the figures by the previous administration.
> How could it be that in 2 months we got a combined 23.59% inflation in Crude Materials and 43.47%
> in Crude Energy Materials?
> It appears that this is an impossible reality to the author, unless the books were cooked beforehand
> and they are being corrected now. As the author is mystified specially after the brutal Saddamization
> that oil prices took in December, the author will welcome another explanation to try to elucidate this
> most mysterious matter, as it is highly unlikely that GAS can account for all of these increases.
> These wild fluctuations in the economy, specially if next month's are on the downside, will tend to
> destroy the little fabric of common sense left in the economic system.
> No wonder Corporations are having trouble making profits if they are absorbing most of these costs
>!!!!
> And the author thought that December was bad....He hadn't seen nothing yet!!!!
> Next step is to pass on the costs to the consumer, courtesy of the FED and the previous
> Administration's policies.
>
> Money Supply for January 2001:
> M3 up 97.9 billion or 1.38% in the 1 month period (16.57% yearly rate) to 7,188.4 billion from
> 7,090.5 billion.
> M3 monthly yearly growth rates:
> January 16.57%
> M3 average yearly growth rate January 2000 - January 2001 INCREASED to 9.49% from previous
> month's 8.68 % rate.
> Runaway M3 inflation for January at a monthly annualized rate of 16.57%.
> Without the FED's recent correction, this figure would be around 20%.
>
> GDP:
> As per Mr. Greenspan's comments, GDP growth is about stalled right now.
> A few essays ago, we were discussing the issue that hidden inflation would have tremendous
> negative effects in the future GDP, as it became visible.
> Q1 GDP growth should come in the range of about 0.6% - 0.9%.
>
> Public Debt for End January 2001
> HIGHER debt from 5,662 billion to 5,716 billion. The debt was higher by 54 billion during the last
> month. The Treasury has apparently been servicing the growth of debt by about 61 billion during the
> month.
>
> Goods and Services Trade Deficit December 2000:
> December's Goods and Services Trade Deficit came flat as compared to November at $33.0 billion
> versus a $33.1 billion (revised) in November.
> Imports and Exports decreased for a 3rd consecutive month.
> 2000 Goods and Services Deficit rose to $369.7 billion from $265 billion in 1999, for an increase of
> 39.51%.
> Exports increased $112.2 billion in 2000 to $1,068.4 billion.
> Imports increased $216.9 billion in 2000 to $1,438.1 billion.
> The goods deficit with Japan Increased from $73.4 billion in 1999 to $81.3 billion in 2000.
> The goods deficit with W. Europe Increased from $47 billion in 1999 to $59.8 billion in 2000.
> The goods deficit with China Increased from $68.7 billion in 1999 to $83.8 billion in 2000.
> 2001 Yearly projected deficit stands at $395 billion, based on the flattening of the last quarter, for an
> expected increase of 6.8%.
>
> Inflation:
> The Crude Raw materials in the producing chain have increased in price 46.02 % from January 2000
> to January 2001. January saw an INCREASE of 13.94 %.
> Energy Crude materials have increased in the same period 110.22 %.
> January saw an increase of 25.02 %.
> All commodities inflation is running at 8.18 % from January 2000 to January 2001, despite the
> manipulation of the precious metals markets.
> The PPI (Producer Price Index) for January 2001 yearly average stands at 13.68 %.
> Core PPI stands at 8.04 % YTD.
> January figure stands at 1.14 % rate increase.
> The CPI (Consumer Price Index) for January 2001 yearly average stands at 7.56 %.
> Core CPI stands at 4.56 % YTD.
> January figure stands at 0.63 % rate increase.
> Money Supply Inflation from January 2000 - January 2001 is running at 9.49% a year.
> ECI Q4 (Employment Cost Indicator) is expected at about 1.2 % or 4.58 % for the year.
> The Future Inflation Gauge of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, an index that Mr. Alan
> Greenspan is known to monitor, weakened in January again.
> The ECRI said that inflationary pressures in the economy appear to be easing as economic activity
> continues its downward swing.
> The gauge was pulled down in January by slower growth in real estate loans, a drop in purchasing
> managers reporting slower deliveries and the return of the yield spread to positive territory.
> The smoothed annualized growth rate of the index DECREASED slightly to -12.3% in January, down
> from -10.0% in December.
> Since 2 month's ago we have warned about Hyper-Inflation. It's first effects have manifested in the
> Producer Raw Energy and Materials inputs with scandalous Banana Republic increases in December
> and January.
> Within a couple of months, these distortions should spill over to the Consumer, as the consumer is
> being supplied with a fresh large quantity of newly created M3.
>
> Total Debt and Derivatives:
> Total debt for the 12 months from end Dec 1999 to Dec 2000 was up 5.05%, down from previous
> month 5.38% rate, from 17,377 billion to 18,254 billion. (Fed Statistics).
> This puts the average debt per person at the amazing quantity of $65,975.
> Per capita debt INCREASE of $100 this month; this low increase confirms that we are indeed in a
> recession/stagflation.
> While there are signs of gigantic stresses in the Financial system, it still appears that the
> derivatives and debt bubbles have not burst yet, as the FED laboriously injects liquidity and tries to
> inflate its way out of trouble.
> Perhaps the unprecedented 1% drop in interest rates in January was implemented to prolong the
> live of the patient.
> Since there is a lot of pain in the market right now, we can only foresee very BAD THINGS
> happening from now onwards.
>
> Precious Metals:
> Gold has broken on the downside the $260 range for a while as the Anti-Gold forces continue to
> operate freely.
> However, the Gold Suppressors are being faced with the most powerful array of organized thought
> power and actions of Free Men for quite a while.
> Foreign gold held at the FED has been dropping, according to their reports.
> From January to December 2000 there have been outflows of 355.05 tons.
> December gold outflow was 39.77 tons.
> Total foreign earmarked gold left in custody: 6,962 tons.
> Gold outflow from January 96 to December 2000: 1,658 tons.
> Gold Stock of the US, as per the FED report of February 2001, apparently could not escape to the
> revisions implemented in the Money Stock.
> It is one thing to change the measure of standardless"units of nothing" such as the dollar count, on
> the whim of the counting bureaucrat, for one should not be surprised that it changes in quantity if
> the definition and/or creation of it escapes the Central Bank's control.
> It is quite another to change the measures of one of the spatially densest materials elements known
> to man, as these are units of something real and quite precious.
> In February the following revisions took place in the reported US Gold Stock including ESF:
> 1997 Gold stock diminished to 11,047 millions versus 11,050 in January's report.
> 1998 Gold stock increased to 11,046 millions versus 11,041 in January's report.
> 1999 Gold stock decreased to 11,048 millions versus 11,089 in January's report.
> The difference for 1999 is just a pitiful 30 tons of gold, so who cares if this difference was just
> reported in the month of December 1999?
> Or better perhaps, could this be an attempt to erase The Smoking Gun?
> Or is it some kind of magic trick performed by the Fed ahead of the all important 15th of March
> date?
> Silver is scarcer than Gold right now.
> It is estimated that the US imported 4,360 tons during 2000, up significantly from an estimated 2,660
> tons in 1999.
> Total Visible estimated stocks in the US went down to 3,200 tons in 2000, down from 3,750 tons in
> 1999.
> This silver run will be like no other run has ever been.......
> Currencies:
> The Euro is in a trading range of 0.91 to 0.94.
> The FED cut the short term and Discount rates a full 1% during January.
> The ECB did not lower and maintained their Refinancing rate at 4.75%.
> The BOJ did not raise and maintained the overnight call rate at 0.25%.
>
> Oil and Energy:
> OPEC is expected to cut production by 1.0 million barrels a day after their March meeting.
> All bets are off as the Middle East is a powder keg right now.
> Anything is possible since the bombing of Iraq has put Saudi and Kuwait on notice that there could
> be some retaliations.
> Gas stocks stood at 1.041 trillion CuF by the week ending 9 February, down 26% from a year
> earlier. It appears as if gas will reach a bottom of $5 per thousand Cuf, to possibly start a more
> steady march to 10 dollars by the end of 2001.
> Gas is being blamed for most of the PPI and CPI increases of January.
> North America GAINED 50 drilling rigs in January as compared to December.
> Total rotary rig count stands now at 1717.
> Canada gained 33 up to 579 while the US added 17 rigs up to 1138.
> Gas rigs in the US increased 14 to 900 and Oil rigs increased 3 to 237.
> US rig increases are concentrated in Texas and California for this month.
> International rotary Rig count stood at 717 in December, UP 12 from December figures.
> Total Gas rigs UP 4 to 172 and Oil rigs UP 9 to 519.
> Latin America down 4, Africa up 3, Middle East up 16, Europe down 2 and Asia Pacific down 1.
> US rigs are up 50% from a year ago.
> Canada rigs are up 6% from a year ago.
> International rigs are up 28% from a year ago.
> World rigs up to 2,434 from 1,862 or 31% increase.
>
> New York is building 10 gas fired power plants to cope with the electricity demand peak of the
> coming summer.
> This summer presages to be a disaster for electricity availability as air conditioners start to be
> turned on across the nation, especially in California.
> Then, the blame of the high stagflationary environment will most likely be put on gas, electricity
> and oil prices.
>"Azteca de Oro"
>
> Disclaimer:
> The information presented by the author is not intended to be used for investment purposes, and it
> may contain errors.
> It is intended only to give the reader an eagle's view of the state of the economy and/or energy
> markets, as perceived by the author.
> It reflects the author's opinion and no representation as to the accuracy of this data and/or opinions
> is made, as it may reflect on the bias or interpretation of the author.
> However, to the best knowledge of the author, the data presented is accurate.
> Printer-Friendly
> Version
> EMail this Article
> to a Friend.


<center>

<HR>

</center>

Thread gesperrt

 

gesamter Thread:

• Mal ein paar Zahlen - R.Deutsch, 24.02.2001, 12:57
  • Danke, R.Deutsch.... Link? Ãœbersetzung gefällig? owT - SchlauFuchs, 24.02.2001, 16:23