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Mix-Ansicht- Ed Downs Einschätzung Nas Comp. - Bill, 26.02.2001, 12:59
Ed Downs Einschätzung Nas Comp.
Today, we did break 2,195 at the Open, and instantly continued lower. This downtrend lasted all day, until a saucer bottom formed in the 5 Minute Chart, and the index took off at 2pm EST. This behavior mirrored the Dow and OEX, with a clear bottom on all three.
We also broke a clear trendline in the 15 Minute Chart, a great sign for a rally (again). All we need now is a clear higher low, and we are off to the races. Look at that line in the 15 Minute Chart - it's very solid. I must admit to being a little gunshy after the last trendline break (remember, the gap up, then gap down?) But, these things usually work out to lead to new rallies. As I say, we are now waiting for that higher low to form. We will see.
Short Term NASDAQ
In the short term, we are overextended and likely to retrace. Watch for a break of 2,255 at the Open, and expect a retracement to carry us back to 2,200. Then, if we get that, expect a reversal around that number and a renewed upward push. If the market goes straight up, don't buy right away. It has high odds of retracing during the day. Wait for the retracement.
Medium Term NASDAQ
Still not quite ready to go Long on the NASDAQ. However, we are close. I am hoping we see a nice little retracement Monday or Tuesday, and a higher low form half way between the previous high and low. That will be the signal, in my opinion, that it is finally"safe" to get back in the pool.
Summary:
While the start of the day was down, we turned at the end, with the Dow off 10,300 to form a nice rally through important lines in the short term charts. All we can do now is see if it"takes" by virtue of a higher low forming. If we go through the lows again at 2,160 - there is no choice but to go short - again - for the likely run down to 2,000.
Thanks for listening, and good luck in your trading!
Ed Downs
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