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Mix-Ansicht- Strategie von Larry Haimsohn - black elk, 01.03.2001, 12:50
- Korrekt: v von 3 beim Gold + EURUSD (owT) - black elk, 01.03.2001, 12:52
Strategie von Larry Haimsohn
Well if I'm right, we'll be much busier tomorrow than we were today. Sell, Buy, Sell, Buy.
Tomorrow has the chance to be a memorable day. There is a lot of
information that suggests solid support at the following levels. These levels are the same percentage down for the DOW and the NYSE, which are trading almost hand in hand. The S&P 500 held the 200 week moving average last friday. Well, it comes in at appx 575 on the NYSE and 9600ish on the DOW. The NYSE weekly chart shows solid support at 575 and AIR under that. On the DOW, we have the Oct 18th low of 9657. This is appx 8% from closing levels.
Tomorrow, when the DOW breaks 10290 and the NYSE 612, all hell will break loose. The tick-tock-tick-tock, will come with an explosion and the market should freefall, as this technician doesn't see any worthwhile support until we get to the above levels.
I want to preface my following strategy with my thoughts on the market prior to option expiration. I am as confident as I can be that the panic that will take the S&P 500 to 1025 or so, will occur before option expiration. It may be lower. I think March 13th is the latest day for the panic to end. I do believe that we will make a lower low on about March 23rd, or a day or 2 before. That low should be in the range of 940-970. If I'm wrong, I believe I'll be erring on the high side, and maybe way high.
This strategy may not be suited to all, but I will do just this.
I plan to sell out some positions as we near those levels I spoke of. I'm not going to liquidate all of my positions by any means. We will sell all of our regular puts (NOT CRASH PUTS), and buy some out of the money calls. That will happen if we approach 575 on the NYSE and 9660 on the DOW. We will probably keep 70% of our crash puts.
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Ich halte seine Einschätzung für realistisch. Es gibt eigentlich 2 Möglichkeiten für SPX und DJI: Extension3 oder Extension5. Wenn die iii von 3 extensiert, dann sehen wir den Crash jetzt. Wenn die v von 3 extensiert, dann zieht sich die Chose bis Mitte/Ende März hin. Mit Blick auf Dollar und Gold könnte das schlimmste auch Freitag/Montag passieren und dann langsam gegen Ende März austrudeln. Dafür spricht die Erwartung einer extensierten iii von 3 beim EURUSD und wahrscheinlich auch Gold. Die korrelation besteht weiterhin.
Gruß André
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