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Mix-Ansicht- Und was steht so drin im"Beige Book" - Cosa, 07.03.2001, 23:18
- Re: Und was steht so drin im"Beige Book" - JüKü, 08.03.2001, 00:04
Und was steht so drin im"Beige Book"
Hi!
Hier erste Auszüge:
First Take
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book for March 7 reports mixed economic conditions through February 26. Manufacturing industries continue to report declining activity and rising inventories.
And most regions of the country report higher energy and natural gas prices. However, retail sales rose in response to extensive discounting. Also, labor markets are showing some signs of easing, and New York continues to report strong commercial and residential activity.
Summary
<ul> ~ While continuing to indicate that economic growth remains sluggish, the report is somewhat mixed. A number of strengths remain in the economy. Consumer spending levels improved and demand for residential housing was generally positive. While labor markets remain tight, a greater availability of workers has eased wage pressures.
~ Consumer spending rose slightly in most Districts. However, auto sales declined in the first two months of the year when compared with last year. As a result, auto inventories still remain high throughout the country.
~ Manufacturing activity continues to decline in most regions, except in the Boston and Richmond districts. Falling output was reported from a variety of producers, from motor vehicles and parts to telecommunications equipment. However, manufacturers in pharmaceuticals and biotechnology in the Northeast and the West noted improved conditions. Nevertheless, there was a wide-spread reduction in capital spending among manufacturers.
~ The real estate market continues to be a source of support for the national economy. While many regions report a slight easing of activity, New York actually reported an increase. Vacancy rates in general remained steady, although the Atlanta and Chicago districts report some increased availability of leasing space.
~ Most districts reported that, other than residential mortgage refinancing, loan demand was sluggish. While no serious deterioration in credit quality was reported, banks in several districts have tightened credit standards.
~ Price pressures remain subdued, as many retailers used extensive discounting to increase sales. The higher energy prices reported in most districts were not passed on to consumers.
~ Even though labor markets in most districts remain tight, wage pressures remained subdued. However, employee benefit costs, especially for health insurance, continued to rise. The New York, Atlanta, Minneapolis, and San Francisco districts noted large increases.</ul>
Analysis
Current economic indicators show that the economic slowdown continues to hit manufacturing industries the hardest. The decline in manufacturing activity was reported in the Midwest and the Southeast. Producers of high-tech equipment, motor vehicles, and telecommunications equipment reported slack demand. However, producers in pharmaceuticals and biotechnology in the West and Northeast reported improved conditions.
Despite the layoffs in the manufacturing and tech sectors, labor markets still remain tight. However, there are signs that some of the pressures are beginning to ease, freeing up much needed workers. A greater availability of workers was noted in the Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco districts. Demand for manufacturing workers declined mainly in the Midwest, while the Boston district reported a decline in demand for information technology workers.
One of the more positive trends in the report is that credit quality has not deteriorated to a significant extent. Rather, businesses, in scaling back capital expenditures, have reduced their demand for loans. The Fed notes, however, that many banks remain concerned and are looking closely at their portfolios, especially in the areas of businesses and commercial real estate. And the tightening in credit standards could portend liquidity problems in the near future.
Consumer lending also decreased, although the Chicago district reported an increased use in credit cards and rising outstanding balances, which could point to rising consumer debt burdens.
The equity markets may be concerned with the widespread increase in energy and natural gas prices that have not been passed on to consumers. Also, the rising health insurance costs for employers will squeeze profit margins further.
The Fed notes that retail prices were lower in January as a result of deep discounts designed to clear winter inventories. However, prices stabilized in February. The absence of any huge price increases in conjunction with the moderate inflation outlook, should provide the Fed with more leeway to reduce interest rates at their meeting at the end of the month.
<font size="2">(Quelle:Dismal Scientist)</font>
Und hier noch ein Link zum heute erschienenen Beige Book:
~ Beige Book
Gruss
Cosa
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