Mut zu Gold und Silber

verfasst von R.Deutsch, 08.03.2001, 13:49

Viele, auch hier im Forum halten es ja nach wie vor für"mutig" 50% und mehr in Gold und Silber zu investieren, es gibt aber gute Gründe, jetzt sogar mehr als 100% in Gold und Silber anzulegen. Diesen Schritt zu gehen ist jetzt aber wohl mehr eine Bewusstseinsfrage. Es ist zu ungewohnt, in dieser Kategorie zu denken - die"Zeitenwende" zu erkennen, um mal mit dottore zu reden. Selbst er zögert ja wohl noch. Eigentlich ist jetzt ein intensives Coaching gefragt, mehr noch als spezielle Tips, um überhaupt den Schritt zu wagen. Das ist vielleicht wie bei einem See der frisch zugefroren ist. Die meisten wagen sich erst drauf, wenn alle anderen auch drauf gehen. Macht ja auch Sinn, allerdings sind die Anfangsgewinne in diesem Markt wohl recht groß und belohnen den Mutigen. Viele fangen an jetzt Münzen zu kaufen, aber die Alterssicherung auf Gold und Silber zu gründen ist noch ein weiter Weg.

Hier mal ein Beitrag aus dem gold-eagle zum Mut machen. Ist zwar nur technisch, aber immerhin.

Gruß
R.Deutsch


Stocks aside, the big talk right now in many financial corners seems to be centered
around the gold market; specifically around the possibility for a gold market crash.
Indeed, several top analysts have gone out on a limb to predict that the gold market
is on the brink of a crash of epic proportions, which would take gold down below
$200. In our analysis, this scenario is doubtful in the highest. Much like the equities
market, gold's dominant intermediate-term cycle is due to bottom in early March.
This means we are only days away from an expected end of the decline that has
weakened gold's price for the last several months. While a test of the $250 ultimate
supporting floor is a possibility, we doubt even this will transpire since that would
run the risk of breaking the market wide open at a critical juncture. The short
interest on the COMEX continues to build at a fantastic pace and the market is in
the perfect position for a short-covering rally-the kind of rally that would cause a
spike in gold futures similar to the one that occurred in September-October 1999.
Long-term bull markets do not usually begin with short-covering rallies, but the
current gold market will be an exception. Apparently, gold's bull will begin as some
sort of"V-bottom" reversal and will launch higher from there after a series of
consolidations along the way. Ideally we would want to see a major bull market
begin as a rounding bottom-type accumulation pattern, but we'll take them as they
come.

Gold's short-term price objective (by June of this year) is the $400-$425 range.
After this level is reached, a pullback and lengthy consolidation will ensue that will
probably carry to the end of the year. The upward trend will resume in force in
early 2002 and will carry higher throughout the year.

How high can gold climb over the long haul? In this instance the sky is truly the
limit. Gold will fast become the asset of choice (indeed, the de facto choice) of the
'10s. When all other assets classes (including real estate) are sinking rapidly in the
runaway deflationary trend through 2004, investors will have no other choice but to
pile into the gold market, which will only exacerbate the upside trend. Gold in the
years ahead will be what the Dow was in the 1990s. A phenomenal,
once-in-a-lifetime buying opportunity is upon us.

Once the present market decline bottoms, a number of stock sectors will become
buys, including the gold mining stocks. Our favorite long-term investment choice is
Placer Dome (PDG). Barrick Gold (ABX) also reflects the favorable longer-term
outlook for the mining stocks. Note the concentric cycloid pattern in the 10-year
chart of the ABX. A bearish dome is about to intersect a bullish bowl-in March no
less-and our guess is that the bullish energy of the bowl will overpower the bearish
pressure of the dome. In fact, this is one of the single most powerful chart patterns
that can occur-a bowl meeting a dome. Either way, an explosive move (whether to
the upside or downside) always results.

The physical economy continues to deteriorate, so much so that even the
always-ebullient financial press has added the word"recession" to its vocabulary.
Fortunately for them, this word will only be applicable for a few months.
Unfortunately for them, another, more severe, word will soon take its
place-depression. By our estimate, we should be in the early stages of
depression by the fourth quarter of the present year. The depression will intensify
next year and through 2004. This is yet another reason why gold will become the
de facto investment choice in 2001 and beyond. Nothing shatters the financial
illusions and delusions of the crowd faster than a deteriorating economy. Incipient
depression is yet another fundamental factor the gold market has in its favor.

In summary, we are at the crossroads of several major economic and financial
events. The crosscurrents now present throughout the market have made it difficult
to consistently make money in one direction or the other, and this will likely
continue through March. However, two firm signals will be flashed this spring that
will afford us tremendous profit opportunities on both sides of the market (long and
short). The gold market will also offer rich rewards to far-sighted investors who
have bought at today's low prices.


Clif Droke

February 23, 2001

Clif Droke is the author of the recently published books Technical Analysis
Simplified and Moving Averages Simplified (Traders Library) and is the editor of
the weekly Internet Stock Forecast newsletter. For a free two-week trial to the
newsletter, visit the Web site at www.istockforecast.com


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gesamter Thread:

• Mut zu Gold und Silber - R.Deutsch, 08.03.2001, 13:49
  • Ja, klar, bis auf den einen Dreh- &amp; Angelpunkt: - Talleyrand, 08.03.2001, 14:30
    • Re: Ja, klar, bis auf den einen Dreh- &amp; Angelpunkt: - R.Deutsch, 08.03.2001, 15:04
      • Das goldene Vlies? - Talleyrand, 08.03.2001, 17:41
        • Re: Das goldene Vlies? Gold ist identisch mit einem Long Straddle... - Pancho, 08.03.2001, 18:17
          • tolle Analyse Pancho -danke owT - R.Deutsch, 08.03.2001, 18:58
          • Re: Das goldene Vlies? Gold ist identisch mit einem Long Straddle... - dottore, 08.03.2001, 19:37
        • Re: Das goldene Vlies? - R.Deutsch, 08.03.2001, 18:43
        • Re: Das goldene Vlies? - le chat, 08.03.2001, 19:03
  • Re: Mut zu Gold und Silber - Reinhard kannst Du etwa auch zaubern? - nereus, 08.03.2001, 15:40
    • Re: Pumpen-Pumpen - lieber Nereus owT - R.Deutsch, 08.03.2001, 16:17
      • Re: Pumpen-Pumpen - lieber Nereus owT - nereus, 08.03.2001, 17:07
        • Re: Pumpen-Pumpen - lieber Nereus owT - Oldy, 08.03.2001, 18:38
          • Re: Pumpen-Pumpen - und Wein mitnehmen - nereus, 08.03.2001, 18:57
          • ich hatte an Dich gedacht - Oldy - R.Deutsch, 08.03.2001, 19:00
            • Re: ich hatte an Dich gedacht - Oldy - Oldy, 08.03.2001, 19:21
              • Re: ich hatte an Dich gedacht - Oldy - Baldur der Ketzer, 08.03.2001, 20:59