Re: Japans Zinspolitik

verfasst von black elk, 07.07.2000, 13:29

Link unter:

http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~netking/finan.htm#tquotns

"... Speculation has grown in recent days that the central bank is moving toward a tighter monetary policy after 16 months of zero interest rates. The money policy has been aimed at spurring the sluggish economy by making it cheaper to borrow money.
But with the economy starting to improve, [BOJ Deputy Gov. Sakuya Fujiwara] said some in the Bank of Japan are wondering whether it would be best to raise rates slightly now to head off inflation, rather than wait and be forced into more drastic increases.

If a falling dollar leads to heavy dollar claim repatriation, the funds that those claims provided will be lost to the economy. Interest rates would rise further, to tempt investors back with increased returns on investments, increasing the cost of servicing external debt repayments. Rising interest rates are anathema to the stock market. A lot of private assets would be lost, leading to a dissipation of the"wealth effect" that has been driving the economy. With a practically non-existent savings rate, there is nothing to fall back on. The economy would slow... people will have difficulties repaying their mortgage debt... this will stress the non-governmental organisations, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac... companies start laying off employees... the falling dollar makes imports more expensive, increasing price inflation... the stock market and dollar bubble decline referred to by the CEPR clearly has the potential to set up a vicious self-reinforcing spiral. Then, pretty soon we may be looking at Great Depression No. 2.

Auch bei einem 'es fehlt Welle 5 Szenario' muß man im Auge behalten, daß danach die Party nach dem 'Elliottwave-Consensus' vorbei ist. Dabei gilt ein besonderes Augenmerk dem USD/ Yen, den japanischen Zinsen und damit der Politik der BoJ.

black elk




<center>

<HR>

</center>

Thread gesperrt

 

gesamter Thread:

• An Dottore? - 2good4you, 07.07.2000, 11:25
  • Re: USD/ Yen - black elk, 07.07.2000, 11:43
    • Re: USD/ Yen - Baldur der Ketzer, 07.07.2000, 12:04
      • Re: USD/ Yen - black elk, 07.07.2000, 12:53
        • Re: Japans Zinspolitik - black elk, 07.07.2000, 13:29
          • Re: Japans Zinspolitik - dottore, 07.07.2000, 13:52