USA Soft Landing und Japans Erholung

verfasst von black elk, 08.07.2000, 09:47

Japan's Economic Recovery Is on Track, Miyazawa Says (Update2)
By Michael McKee


Fukuoka, Japan, July 8 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese Finance Minister Kiichi Miyazawa said the country's economy will extend its recovery, while ducking questions about whether the central bank should raise interest rates.

In separate meetings ahead of a gathering of finance ministers from the Group of Seven leading industrial nations, Miyazawa told German Finance Minister Hans Eichel and U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers that Japan will reach its target of 1 percent economic growth this year. That's twice last year's pace, which followed two years of recession.

Business spending on factories and equipment is improving, and consumer spending, though lackluster, is better than last year, Miyazawa told his counterparts, according to a Japanese official, who spoke to reporters on condition of anonymity.

That's a message the 80-year-old Miyazawa wants to take into today's meeting. What he's likely to get are questions on whether the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates for the first time in a decade anytime soon.

While the ministers will not issue a statement on interest rates at the end of their meeting, they are expected to make it clear to the Japanese that this is not the time to boost interest rates. Central bankers aren't attending today's meeting.

Global Growth

The meeting, which will help set the agenda for a summit of G- 7 leaders in Okinawa July 21-23, will touch on continuing reform of the international financial system, debt relief for the world's poorest countries, and efforts to fight money laundering and other forms of financial crime, Summers said.

Topping the agenda, however, is the issue of ``balanced growth'' in the global economy, Summers said Friday.

Japan remains the economic laggard among the G-7 nations. The U.S. economy is likely to grow 4.8 percent this year, while the 11- country euro zone is expected to expand 3.5 percent. After two years of contraction, Japan managed to grow 0.5 percent in the year ended March 31.

Japan's benchmark borrowing rate was shaved to near zero in March of last year to protect the world's second-biggest economy from deflation. In recent months, though, BOJ officials have called the 16-month-old policy ``abnormal,'' arguing that keeping rates too low for too long has delayed corporate reforms and hurt people living on fixed incomes.

Futures contracts on three month euro-yen deposits suggest investors expect the BOJ will raise its overnight loan rate by almost half a percentage point before the end of the year. BOJ policymakers will meet on July 17, Aug. 11 and Sept. 14

Miyazawa, Summers

Speculation about a BOJ move on rates intensified Tuesday, when the bank's Tankan quarterly survey showed the number of companies optimistic about the economy outnumbered those which were pessimistic for the first time in three years.

Miyazawa, while declining to criticize the BOJ directly, has suggested he may not back the bank's drive for higher rates. He told reporters Wednesday that policymakers should ``take into account the international environment'' when making interest rate decisions.

BOJ Governor Masaru Hayami, attending a meeting of central bankers in Seoul, declined to comment. ``I cannot say anything,'' Hayami toyami told Bloomberg News Friday. ``It's up to the monetary board to decide.''

Summers told reporters earlier this week that it's still ``absolutely crucial'' for Japan to keep up policies aimed at achieving sustained domestic demand-led growth. Interest rate policy is key to continuing Japan's recovery, he told Miyazawa, according to the Ministry of Finance official.

In today's 45-minute meeting, Summers and Miyazawa had a ``very good discussion of the economic situations in their countries,'' said U.S. Treasury Spokeswoman Michelle Smith.

Das interessante an dem Bloomberg Artikel ist die Einschätzung der Politiker, alles wird gut. Die USA schaffen das 'soft landing', Japan ist zurück auf dem Wachstumspfad und sollte auf keinen Fall jetzt schon die Zinsen erhöhen (davor hat Summers wohl erhebliche Angst, dann ist es nämlich vorbei mit dem kreditfinanzierten Wachstum in den USA). Ich vermute, die USA werden weiterhin Druck auf Japan ausüben, die Zinsen ja nicht zu erhöhen, genauso wie sie das mit den Saudis und dem Ã-l gemacht haben.

Ob wirklich alles gut wird, ist eine andere Frage.Wichtig ist, die internationale Finanzgemeinde glaubt daran, und das ist das einzige was zählt. Bis dann die nächste Hiobsbotschaft kommt. Mich interessiert nur die Frage Welle 5 oder nicht und die will ich noch traden. Danach ist die Hausse sowieso vorbei und auf der Longseite gibt es wenig zu holen.

black elk

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• USA Soft Landing und Japans Erholung - black elk, 08.07.2000, 09:47
  • Re: USA Soft Landing und Japans Erholung - Kamtschatkabär, 08.07.2000, 10:43
    • Re: Klassische Charttechnik - black elk, 08.07.2000, 11:29
      • Love - Kamtschatkabär, 08.07.2000, 12:52