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Mix-Ansicht- ED DOWNS Update: - Der letzte Grund, 23.04.2001, 15:09
- Vielen Dank!(o.T.) - Chrizzy, 23.04.2001, 15:29
- Re: ED DOWNS Update: hier die NASDAQ ausführlicher! - Bill, 23.04.2001, 16:06
Vielen Dank!(o.T.)
>Updated for Monday, April 23, 2001
>DOW MARKET COMMENTARY
>UP Above 10,625
>DN Below 10,575
>Pennant Below 10,600
>We dropped through 10,575 and formed an upward-sloping pennant in the 15
>Minute Chart - a potentially negative sign for Monday.
> From yesterday's commentary,"In the very short term, watch 10,680. If
>that mark is crossed, the index will probably give up 80-100 points to get
>back to the lows of the consolidation. Normally consolidations are
>indicators of continuation moves, so I would naturally expect the market to
>move higher from here. However, we are 1,000 points plus off the low. So,
>logically, we would expect a retracement."
>The Dow did pull back about 100 points from the 10,680 line, ending up at
>10,580 at the Close. This could be the start of a retracement. The chart
>that really worries me is the 15 Minute. You can see an upward sloping
>pattern with a lower line at about 10,575. And, this is happening below
>10,600. Logically, we would expect this line to be broken and the Dow to
>give up 100-200 points early next week. However, if we get back above
>10,600 and hold, we will be back in a positive
>mode.
>As far as our positions go on this page, we exited at 10,575 and will hold
>back from entering new positions until 10,625 is crossed, and will then
>hold our mental stop at 10,575 again until the index has had a chance to
>gain some ground.
>Short Term Dow
>In the very short term, watch 10,575. I am expecting a push down through
>this number Monday. If so, we want to Short and hold for the likely ride
>to 10,500 and possibly 10,400. If we start up, I would wait for 10,600 to
>be crossed before entering new positions.
>Medium Term Dow
>We exited our Longs early today at the 10,575 point after a gain of about
>1,000 Dow points from our entry around 9,600 a while back. Not bad. Now,
>we want to know the same thing everyone else is asking - Are we at the
>start of a new bull phase? It's difficult to say, but I am suspicious of
>the market below 10,600. Watch for a failure Monday through 10,575 and
>begin accumulating shorts there.
>NASDAQ and OEX
>The NASDAQ has hit our consolidation target of 2,175 and even improved on
>it a little bit. Now, we are consolidating in a tight range around 2,150
>and simply need to watch which way it breaks. Our levels on this index are
>2,170 up and 2,130 down. The OEX is also tightening, and we have clear
>breaks in the consolidation there as well, but the posturing of the index
>was negative going into the Close. **
>In Summary:
>Today, we had the start of what could turn into a fairly hefty retracement
>on the Dow and other indexes. We have moved a great deal, so this would be
>logical, and not necessarily deadly. We are closely watching 10,575 on the
>Dow, and are otherwise on the sidelines waiting on 10,625 for new Longs.
>Thanks for listening, and good luck in your trading!
>Ed Downs
>edowns@nirvsys.com
>---------------------
>** NASDAQ and OEX Charts for today's market are available to members. At
>signalwatch.com, click"Become a Member" at the top or"Member Upgrades" at
>the left for details on our various service levels.
>---------------------
>Definitions:
>Short vs. Medium Term: The short term is defined as 1-4 days. Most short
>term commentary is relevant to day traders for the following session. The
>medium term is 1-4 weeks.
>*** Fulcrums: A fulcrum is essentially a"line in the sand" or
>"demilitarized zone" in the battle between bulls and bears. These lines,
>identified by experience, are equilibrium points between buyers and
>sellers, and are usually found in the centers of consolidations (trading
>ranges). When price moves away from a fulcrum, it usually moves quickly and
>a great distance.
>(!) Higher-High, Lower-Low rule - As we establish fulcrums, and exit or
>enter positions based on them, we want to avoid whipsaws, which are losses
>caused by trading back and forth across the line. We do this by waiting
>until the recent high or low is violated. For example, let's say a security
>(or index) is at 100, which is our fulcrum. We break 100 and go Long. The
>market rallies to 103 and then drops back through, so we exit at 100. Now,
>we do not go Long again until the recent high, just formed by that reversal
>at 103 is crossed. Say the market rallies again, gets to 105 and heads down
>through 100. We exit and wait for 105 to be crossed. This process insures
>that we will be whipsawed at most 3 times, as continued reversals of this
>type will form an expanding triangle - a rare formation.
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