Board-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht- ED DOWNS Update: - Der letzte Grund, 23.04.2001, 15:09
- Vielen Dank!(o.T.) - Chrizzy, 23.04.2001, 15:29
- Re: ED DOWNS Update: hier die NASDAQ ausführlicher! - Bill, 23.04.2001, 16:06
Re: ED DOWNS Update: hier die NASDAQ ausführlicher!
Hit the Target
NASDAQ hits upper consolidation target at 2,200 (18 points shy). Now, watch 2,150 for a retracement signal.
From yesterday's commentary,"In the short term, we will likely rally on the NASDAQ tomorrow at the Open. If that happens, go with it and set your stop at the low of about 2,070. In that case, we are betting on the trading range forming, so get ready to exit at the high..."
The NASDAQ did continue up today, reversing the end of day downtrend from yesterday. Now, we are right at the consolidation target forecast by the low at 1,600 and the center of 1,900 (1,900 - 1,600 = 300, and 1,900 + 300 = 2,200). The likely thing for Friday is a retracement. We will use the lower trendline at 2,150 to determine that.
Short Term NASDAQ
In the short term, we are expecting a retracement. Watch 2,177 for the first clue, and 2,150 as the second (in the 1 and 5 minute charts, respectively). A retracement could carry us all the way back to 2,075, but we don't have a clear indication of range (since the index has basically just gone up) so it is difficult to measure fibonacci retracement levels.
Medium Term NASDAQ
We had our impulse wave up at the Open, and the buyers were there, reversing the prior downtrend (from the end of the day on Wednesday). Now, we are at a consolidation target after a very long run. Look at the Daily Chart and you can see how unnatural this is. Yes, it's overdue, but we have to be careful. I would consider exiting Longs at 2,150 and get back on board when we muster enough strength to solidly break 2,200. Or, for a longer term play, hold all the way down to 2,075.
Summary:
We are now hitting the consolidation target form the 60 Minute Chart, and have done so in a nearly straight up rally. This implies high odds of a pullback tomorrow. The question is, Will it pull back a lot, or just consolidation in a range above 2,150. Difficult to say. If we cross the 2,150 line, a more hefty retracement is likely in store and we want to consider exiting Long exposure until the storm passes.
Thanks for listening, and good luck in your trading!
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