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Mix-Ansicht- Fundstück zum COMP - gleicht im Prinzip der Cycle Pro Ansicht - black elk, 09.05.2001, 19:17
- Re: Fundstück zum COMP - gleicht im Prinzip der Cycle Pro Ansicht / DANKE!!! (owT) - Doosie, 09.05.2001, 19:49
Fundstück zum COMP - gleicht im Prinzip der Cycle Pro Ansicht
Jim's prefered arithmatic & %age EW counts for Nasdaq....more
Jim says: We stated earlier, that we have only one count we prefer, and that is not totally true. we have a preferred arithemetic count and a preferred perctage count.the percentage count will have to be taken with faith, because we are not at all comfortable with our approach to it, but it does make things fit together longer term in some instances. Let us ask you, what do you perctange with? We aren't sure if we should be going as a percent against zero, a percent against other waves or a percent against retracements? nothing is clear on that. So we go with percent against zero, because it would seem to make the most sense for all situations, but what do we know. Ok we have settled our selves on the double retracement scenario, so we go 5 waves down from the top.
Set in stone ; wave1 mar 00 to may 00
wave 2 may 00 to july 00
The rest of the moves is where counts differ and run there own courses.
july 00 to aug 00 is a 5 wave down
aug 00 to sep 00 is a 3 wave up, these moves are set in stone as well, but their placement in the larger structure is yet to be determined.
We don't know if we can explain everything we see, so we will give our counts & target now, and leave the mumbo jumbo for later, so all you people can get on with your lives.
Arithmentic preferred.
We are still in 3 of C because the extension that started last sept 1 doesn't look to be completed. Basically another down leg has started with 2202, and we target 1010 by the end of June. This count implies we drag on for another year to 18 months before the end of bear.
Percent preferred.
We have started 4 of 3 of C and 2202 is a s/t top, we goto 1600, then to 2242 to complete this move. then we go to 1370 to complete 5 of 3 of C. this also by the end of JUNE.
Then we start 4 of C. this count also means we have 12 months more of the express elevator to hell.
Arithmatic worksheet
4289 to 3521 = wave 1 and 768 pts
3521 to 4259 = wave 2 and 739 pts.
4259 to 3026 = wave 3 and 1263 pts
3026 to 3480 = wave 4 and 454 pts
3480 to 2252 = wave 5 and 1228 pts
2252 to 2892 = wave 6 and 640 pts
2892 to 1620 = wave 7 and 1272 pts
1620 to 2202 = wave 8 and 582 pts
2202 to 952 target = wave 9 and 1250 pts.
Ok what the hell are we doing counting 9 waves?. the definition of an extension is a repeating pattern that moves in a 5 waves plus 4 type pattern (i.e. 5waves goto 9, and if that isn't enough,then it goes to 13,17 21 etc.)
so why this way?
All the down legs are similar in length, except the first which has a.618 relationship with the rest. Also the counter trend rallies did not go above the previous lows. So while this last wave down is targeted with 1250 pts, it could also go FIB, and only goto 1434 (768 pts)
The 952 target is actual, the 1010 target that was posted was a typo, sorry.
Jim says: Some (most?) are using and ABC from the mar 00 top. the wave 4 they are looking for is 4 of C we believe, don't know, have to ask them. We however are counting 5 waves down from the mar00 top. because the bear market actually started in 1998. The 98 lows are a three wave down for A then a 3 wave move up to mar00 highs and then a 5 wave C since mar 00. This is part of the double retracement we stated earlier.
Jim says: We know already that our preferred says that 2202 is a high and we are headed to new lows. Will post the counts later, the only way to go up is by alternate count, and that is only a wave 4 type up. Hopefully we can point out that from what we see that our preferred is the only one. the alternates can only come about by some form of percentage relationships, which we have far from mastered. by arithmetic measurements, next stop would be close to Oct 98 lows.
flyhigher says: And yet one important rule laid out by R. N. Elliott, as paraphrased by Bob Prechter in his classic text The Elliott Wave Principle is that:"When an extension occurs in a fifth up-wave, the ensuing correction will occur in three waves and retrace to the beginning of the extension. The first and second waves of the downswing become wave"A" and"B" of an"irregular" correction. Wave"C" will then be composed of 5 waves downward, fast and probably to the beginning of the 5th primary of the preceding bull market." This downswing will then be followed by a second retracement UP. That is,"the fifth wave extensions are always doubly retraced." i would prefer your count to be honest jim, and don't see what could possibly send us up to the 2900 area again, infact it seems impossible, but came accross the above, and if they ALWAYS get retraced, hence target of 2900, then how come you have a top of 2200?
Jim says: Fifth wave extensions. From what we are reading of what you said, we take it like this.You would be calling the oct 98 to mar 2000 run the 5 th extension. It is not, the move from late 95 to oct 98 was the fifth extension. then the 98 lows were the three wave correction( first retracement) then we blew the top off into mar2000 with the second 3 wave( the 2nd or double retracement) The second retrace always goes to new highs. And the 2 nd 3wave(oct 98 to mar 2000) may not look like a 3 wave, but where one would expect b of B may just look like a graduallly upsloping line. These are Elliot words, not mine. so now from the Mar top we count a 5 wave C, which as noted by you and Elliott is swift and destructive and like no bear market previously seen in the previous impulse moves.
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