Re: Interessante Einschätzung (Zinsen / Aktien / vam)?

verfasst von JüKü, 15.05.2001, 01:12

>Hallo Leute,
>es folgt eine Meinung eines mir unbekannten
>Bekannten eines (mir ein wenig) Bekannten, mit
>dessen Meinung ich aber gute Erfahrungen habe..
>Was meint Ihr dazu!?!? Gruss - Jagg
>ps. achso, wenn es wer übersetzen sollte - hehe,
>wär fein für einige...:)
>-------Zitat-----------
>I wondered this AM how often we've had a period in
>which 30 year bond rates
>have risen, while 3 month bill rates have dramatically
>fallen.
>Went back to 1943 and found that it's a rare
>occurrence. This is the only
>time in history when bill rates have fallen more than
>30% while bond rates
>have risen over 5% during a 20 week span.
>Only five occasions when bill rates have fallen more
>than 25% while bond
>rates have risen at all: May/June, 1967; April/May,
>2001; July/Aug, 1958;
>Jan/Feb, 1972; and May, 1980. The future direction of
>long rates was not
>auspicious on any of those occasions, eventually
>derailing the stock market
>in all but 1958. Most ominously, short rates on each
>occasion moved
>dramatically higher over the coming months as well.
>In short, once Fed easing was producing higher long
>rates, the easing stopped
>and rates continued to move higher, hurting bonds and
>often, with a lag,
>hurting stocks. Perhaps a sign that the Fed had
>overshot their mark, eased
>too much, and generated inflationary trends.

Passt zu meiner Einschätzung für die langfristigen Zinsen: RAUF.

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gesamter Thread:

• Interessante Einschätzung (Zinsen / Aktien / vam)? - Jagg, 14.05.2001, 22:57
  • Re: Interessante Einschätzung (Zinsen / Aktien / vam)? - JüKü, 15.05.2001, 01:12