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Mix-Ansicht- aktuell kolportierte Bullenargumente: - Der letzte Grund, 17.05.2001, 12:56
aktuell kolportierte Bullenargumente:
A healthy housing market could be a harbinger of a rebound, says says Bruce Steinberg, chief economist at Merrill Lynch.
"Most prior recessions have begun with a collapse in the construction sector - this is not happening here," says Steinberg."While we expected housing to weaken somewhat over the balance of the year we do not foresee the kind of contraction in housing activity that has proceeded other slowdowns."
On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a half-point to 4 percent. Fed officials left the door open to more cuts by saying weak growth is a greater risk to the economy now than rising price pressures.
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More cuts may be in store from the Fed, if the economy continues to slow, say pundits.
"The absence of a housing recovery, and the prospect of lower inflation, will help keep the Fed on a course to a 3.5 percent Fed funds rate this summer," says economist Maury Harris, at UBS Warburg.
History backs the bulls as well. The S&P 500 gained an average of 20 percent in the 12 months after the Fed cut rates five times, according to Salomon Smith Barney, based on market performance for 1971, 1975, 1982, 1986 and 1991.
"To be bullish, as I am and have been since late March, you have got to believe in historical precedence that rate cuts help the economy," says Barry Hyman, chief investment strategist at Ehrenkrantz King Nussbaum."It is a comforting thought at this point -- Only at new highs will the bears shut up."
Don't be so quick to jump back in the game, though.
Sell into strength, advises Tony Dwyer, chief investment strategist at Kirlin Holdings, who doesn't see earnings turning around until next year."The second quarter's going to be weak and that's why the Fed is has kept cutting," adds Dwyer.
Angiletta was also not optimistic about the near-term, calling the upcoming warmer months as a"show-me summer," expecting doldrums.
Looking at the next few sessions, Cashin is bullish."[Given the strong close] we can shake lots of money from the sidelines in the next few days."
Let's not even mention"flushing out the shorts". It's a rather unpleasant way of saying that those who had bet on the market slipping further got their heads handed to them and have gone home.
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