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Mix-Ansicht- One in three chance of U.S. recession-Phila Fed - parik, 21.05.2001, 18:25
One in three chance of U.S. recession-Phila Fed
17:20 21May2001 One in three chance of U.S. recession-Phila Fed
NEW YORK, May 21 (Reuters) - The U.S. economy will grow sluggishly over the next two years, according to private sector economists surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia who on average see a one in three chance of recession during 2001, a Monday report said.
Recent reports on the health of the economy, such as a jump in April retail sales and May consumer confidence, have raised hopes that lackluster economic growth will reignite by the second half of the year.
But the 33 economists the Philadelphia Fed polled slashed their forecasts for growth in the second half, dragging down the average by more than a full percentage point to 2.3 percent annualized gross domestic product (GDP) growth from 3.5 percent three months ago.
They expect the sluggish pace persisting well into 2002, with the chance of a recession that year put on average at one in five, according to the bank's quarterly survey of forecasters, which was conducted through May 12, before last Tuesday's half-point interest rate cut, the Fed's fifth this year.
For its survey, the Philadelphia Fed used the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)'s definition of a recession -- a significant decline in activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, visible in industrial production, employment, real income, and trade.
Most textbook definitions list a recession as two consecutive quarters of shrinkage in GDP.
For the current quarter, respondents predicted annualized GDP growth of 1.2 percent, down 1 percentage point from a forecast of 2.2 percent made three months ago.
The economy grew at a 2.0 percent pace in the first quarter, according to the government's first report. A preliminary revision, expected on Friday, is expected to show a 1.5 percent growth rate.
Forecasters saw year-over-year GDP growth at 2.0 percent in 2001 and 2.8 percent in 2002. Those were both downward revisions from 2.2 percent and 3.6 percent, respectively, in the last survey.
The U.S. unemployment rate will likely rise to 4.8 percent by year's end, the report found, higher than the 4.5 percent forecast three months ago, where the jobless rate currently stands.
Economists also predicted a slightly faster rate of inflation, with forecasts for the consumer price index (CPI) at 3.0 percent on a fourth quarter over fourth quarter basis, up from consensus of 2.4 percent CPI growth three months ago.
Gold prices have risen sharply in recent sessions as financial players have sought to hedge against possible future inflationary pressures.
((Ross Finley, U.S. Financial Markets, +646-223-6308))
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