Board-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht- Analysen - Jacques, 21.05.2001, 22:18
Analysen
von guten Bekannten:-), Newsletter vom 1.5.01
Euro STOXX 50
The in our last Monthly Technical Newsletter announced 4500 recovery target got hit.
Up here we have some significant overbought readings that could launch a downside correction back to the 4200-4100 window at any time. Within this scenario there is one really disturbing factor: The positive return on the oscillator's downtrend line, outlined in"panel 2", can be interpreted a quite constructive sign. Therefore, a short-term extension towards 4650 would not surprise.
However, at least in this area, where two different Fibonacci retracement targets are located, the downside pressure should again increase. A first big support is now situated at 4320 and it will be difficult to break. Although we clearly favor - after some attempts - a successful breaking, we should not underestimate the"unexpected" risk for further upside extension to 4900 in May.
In any case, despite the favored downside correction, we want to emphasize that a decline is unlikely to be a bigger medium-term downleg. We would rather interpret the next downmove as part of a time-consuming consolidation pattern.
With respect to the long-term picture we have no convincing indication that the large drop since 5500 is completed. Longer-term moving averages are still pointing down...
S&p 500
(Price reference last newsletter S&P 1'152.69)
In our last month's update we announced an interim recovery with potential to revisit the 1225 area before further losses towards 1000 should follow. In the meantime a rally climbed as high as roughly 1270 and, as such, was stronger than initially expected.
This development, however, cannot really surprise as very oversold technical readings were at its origin. It nevertheless changes our medium-term outlook so that a decline towards 1000 is likely to be delayed.
"Chart 1 and 2" show that the S&P500 just tested or is approaching big resistances. 1270 is considered a first important obstacle."Chart 1, panel 1" shows that a double Fibonacci retracement level is located in this zone. Another similarly important level we can make out near 1300; it roughly coincides with price return lines illustrated in"chart 2, panel 1". We reckon with an exhaustion over the coming few days and a starting downside retracement in early May that can revisit later in the month levels near 1150. Not only the above-discussed resistances but overbought daily readings like the one presented in"chart 1, panel 2" convince us that the current rally is about to exhaust. In addition to that the On Balance Volume line ("chart 1, panel 3") shows that the bounce since the low near 1080 did unfold on rather reduced volume, which is not really a constructive sign. However, the expected decline is probably only a downleg within a large consolidation-retracement phase and will most likely be followed by an upside attempt toward the 1300-1350 area later on.
Finally we would like to stress that a resumption of the longer-term uptrend is not expected. Longer-term moving averages (see"chart 1, panel 1") are still pointing down and the weekly oscillator reading in"chart 2, panel 2" is facing a huge return area (resistance).
We conclude that the possibility for a resumption of the uptrend on current technical background is possibly a low probability scenario only.
<center>
<HR>
</center>
Thread gesperrtgesamter Thread:
