Board-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht- nette Liste: 18 Gründe für lange steigende Goldpreise - yatri, 07.06.2001, 20:03
nette Liste: 18 Gründe für lange steigende Goldpreise
Why This Will Be The Golden Decade
1) China is scheduled to open up its gold market by the end of the year. Over one billion people will suddenly be allowed to buy gold. India, with a population of one billion, imports 800 tons of gold per year. The China demand could be a pleasant surprise.
2) As the Taiwan conflict festers, China may be tempted to shift some of their large dollar holdings into alternative havens such as gold.This would reduce their vulnerability to the threat of a western $ embargo should the dispute over the island heat up.
3) Japans only way out of their deflationary spiral is to create an inflationary psychology and hopefully thereby, inspire the populace to spend some of their massive savings. My guess is that the Japanese are so snake-bit, that along with increased spending on goods and services, they would throw a considerable amount of Yen in the direction of inflation hedge assets. Got gold?
4) Currently, the main threat to the world financial structure would seem to be the spread of Japan-like deflation. Encouraging the price of gold to rise, would be an inexpensive way for the central banks to fight the deflationary psychology now gaining strength. I believe Lawrence Kudlow has expressed similar views.
5) The dollar is way overvalued and at some point it will do what all financial cycles eventually do and that is, reverse. Our extreme dependence on imports, combined with a falling dollar, will cause inflation to soar creating further $ weakness,leading to more inflation etc.,etc.
6) The final EURO conversion takes place in January. Europeans will then no longer need to purchase dollars to launder their black market mattress money. In the meantime, gold would be a logical parking place for some of that hidden cash.
7) Bush would like a weaker dollar to stimulate our export market and help strengthen our industrial base. I also think that the Bush administration views our manufacturing slide as a strategic weakness.
8) The second half economic recovery, eagerly anticipated by the stock market bulls, will turn out instead to be an acceleration of the slowdown. The consumer is about to join corporations in the cost cutting mania ( just a gut feeling.) A severe US recession should be the proverbial straw that breaks the dollar's back.
9) Greenspan is in a box....if he lowers short term rates aggressively to combat the economic downturn, the bond vigilantes will sniff inflation and bid long rates up. Rising long rates will suffocate the mortgage refinancing dynamic which has been a major force behind the debt bubble, If the debt bubble bursts....nah, that's a little too frightening to contemplate.
10) The BOE sales are scheduled to end in March.
11) The Washington Agreement removes a bit of the fear and uncertainty surrounding future CB gold sales.
12) The DOW/gold ratio is at a historic extreme.
13) Each years gold production becomes a smaller and smaller percentage of the world's above ground stock. There is a finite amount of known gold reserves, some of which have already been sold into the forward market. The depletion rate is beginning to come into focus.
14) Gold's high was $875 back in 1980. That today is equivalent to over $2000 when adjusted for inflation. The yellow dog has plenty of room to run.
15) There is a huge bullion bank short position.
16) The Middle East crisis and its potential energy ramifications.
17) GATA
18) Every dog has his day, even yellow mutts.
Caveat....To make predictions in a random cosmos is the mind-play of a fool:-)......GDII
<center>
<HR>
</center>
Thread gesperrtgesamter Thread:
