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Mix-Ansicht- Zu den 'net trader postions' der comercials - black elk, 17.07.2000, 11:30
Zu den 'net trader postions' der comercials
Hi,
vor einiger Zeit hatte ich mal auf die net trader positions der sog. 'smart money' hingewiesen und hatte anscheinend selbst nicht den rechten Durchblick. Deshalb nochmal der Link zu S. Williams von Cycle Pro
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/Exchange/9807/Charts/SP500/Outlook.htm
"Distilling CFTC Data: The recent CFTC update reveals that the"Commercial" category is more net-short then ever before, and this trend has endured for several months. While some analysts suggest that the commerical's are what they call"Smart Money", the problem with one category being in such an extreme net-short/long position is that they do not have many choices to go: (1) they can go even more net-short, (2), they can stall and not modifiy their position, or (3) they can cover their shorts. (1) is always a possibility since the Commercial category seems to be taking up the slack for the relentless appetite of the Large and Small Speculators going more net-long. (2) will only happen if either the Large and Small Speculator curb their taste for long futures -OR- if they are in a transition from going net-short to net-long. (3) is the most likely path because between now and contract expiration, all shorts must be closed out by being bought back, and all longs must be sold -- in the end it is all a zero-sum game. What moves the markets is whenever the balance leans toward one side: either the shorts make the first move and start buying (sparking a rally) or the longs start selling (sparking a selloff).
Since the Commercial category is at record net-short position and the Small Speculator is at record net-long position, it appears that it may be nothing more than a game of waiting to see who blinks first.
In what I would call"normal" market conditions, a healthy bull market in futures is one where the volume and open interest increases as prices rise. This is because it is the long's that are creating the demand and prices must rise before another party is interested in taking the other (short) side. When this happens a new contract is created, and open interest is increased. For a healthy bear market in futures, the exact opposite occurs. For the past 4 weeks, S&P futures open interest is relatively flat. The DJIA and Nasdaq futures stalled last week after increasing for 3 weeks. And the Nasdaq"Mini" open interest increased by +32% over the previous week showing that the smallest (and least sophisticated) traders are jumping into the hi-tech rally."
Weitere links zu den Daten finden sich auf der Site.
black elk
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