WIDERSPRUCH!!

verfasst von yatri, 14.06.2001, 20:42

meiner Ansicht nach ändern die mehrwöchentlichen Schwankungen nichts an dem längerfristigen ( [mehr]monatigen)Aufwärtstrend der Ã-lpreise.

vergleiche dazu mal die Studie der International Energy Agency (IEA) von vorgestern. Sie stellt fest, dass die Ã-lpreise in der zweiten jahreshälfte steigen müssen, falls es keine weiteren Produktionssteigerungen (Angebotsseite)gibt.

Es ist ein bisschen zu einseitig immer nur den Verbrauch in den USA als Kriterium zu nehmen: die Schwellenländer werden z.B. schon als in der rezession befindlich angesehen, wenn sie nur mit 3% wachsen (auch Ã-L-Verbrauch) und dann gibt es dann noch 2 MRD. Menschen in China und Indien, die zunehmend öl-hungrige Giganten werden.

Ich stelle die unten schon gepostete Studie deshalb hier nochmal rein und:

sage NEIN zu der Aussage"das war einmal" (es klingt zu allgemein; du meintest aber wohl ein mehrwöchentliches Phänomen in den USA)

Hier die Studie:
06/12 06:24
Oil Prices to Rise Without More Supply, IEA Says (Update1)
By Alex Lawler


Paris, June 12 (Bloomberg) -- Oil prices, already near $30 in London, will rise further in the second half of the year unless producers increase sales, even if Iraq ends its export moratorium, the International Energy Agency said.

The world will need 2.4 percent more oil, or 1.8 million barrels a day, in the third quarter of the year than the second as the Northern Hemisphere winter approaches, said the agency, an adviser to 26 oil-consuming countries, in a monthly report. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries did not provide for this increase, leaving supplies unchanged at a meeting last week.

The suspension of sales by Iraq, which usually accounts for about 4 percent of world oil supplies, may push prices still higher, said Michael Wittner, an IEA oil-price analyst.

``Even without Iraq going out, our view is that the crude market is going to firm up again,'' Wittner said in an interview. ``Iraq has probably accelerated that process.''

Oil prices have changed little since Iraq said last week it would stop most exports for a month to protest a U.K. proposal for changing the United Nations economic sanctions that have governed most of its trade since the 1990 Gulf War. Brent crude recently traded at $29.33 a barrel, 16 cents more than before the embargo.

Other producers such as Saudi Arabia have pledged to make up for any resulting shortage. OPEC will meet again July 3 to reconsider supply levels.

Inventories Rise

While crude oil inventories in leading consuming nations are higher than they were last year, OPEC's production is falling, raising concern about supplies when refineries start buying winter fuel, the IEA said.

Stocks rose 1.6 percent, or 40.4 million barrels, during April in the member countries of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development, the report said. That is 99.2 million barrels more than a year ago, though 124 million barrels less than 1999 levels. OPEC pared its output by 360,000 barrels a day in May, or 11.2 million barrels over the month.

``It is important that producers do increase production to allow stocks to build in advance of peak demand,'' the IEA said. ``If Iraq remains out of the market, this situation is all the more pressing.''

Excluding Iraq, which doesn't have an OPEC quota, member- nations pumped 24.76 million barrels a day in May, 560,000 more than their April 1 target.

World oil demand for this year will grow 1 million barrels daily from 2000 to 76.55 million barrels, the IEA said, maintaining a forecast made in May

>--------
>>WTI Stand 1.6. Nymex 27,93 $/b
>> aktuell 14.6. Nymex 29,02 $/b = + 1,09 $/b vs. 1.6.
>>Gasoline Stand 1.6. Nymex 93,30 cts/g
>> aktuell 14.6. Nymex 87,10 cts/g = - 6,20 cts /g vs. 1.6.
>>
>---------
>> Gruss
>>K C


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gesamter Thread:

• Benzinknappheit? - das war einmal - Raffineriemargen USA und Europa - KEEP-COOL, 14.06.2001, 20:23
  • Re: Benzinknappheit? - das war einmal - Raffineriemargen USA und Europa - KEEP-COOL, 14.06.2001, 20:32
    • WIDERSPRUCH!! - yatri, 14.06.2001, 20:42
      • Der IEA Report sagt nicht alles.... - KEEP-COOL, 14.06.2001, 23:21