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Mix-Ansicht- Interessanter aktueller Beitrag,zu verschiedene Goldminen - AU, 30.06.2001, 19:19
Interessanter aktueller Beitrag,zu verschiedene Goldminen
Hallo,
nachfolgend ein aktueller Beitrag, über angelaufenen Strukturveränderungen (adding Value)
für Goldminen Shareholders u.a. in SAF (ZA).
wünsche ein schönes Wochenende.
MfG
AU
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29 June 2001
GOLD PRODUCERS: FINDING NEW WAYS OF ADDING VALUE FOR SHAREHOLDERS
By Andrew McNulty
Those who are sceptical about gold can find much about which to be sceptical.
The gold market has been in a bearish trend for a decade or more. Rallies have invariably fizzled out, as happened in 1996 and in 1999. And when the dollar gold price fails, the producers' shares tend to slide as well. If gold falls or stays where it is now, at around US272/oz, that cycle could be repeated yet again.
Historically, the gold price has been the key influence on the share prices. But some of these stocks deserve attention for a different reason.
The business of gold mining is being better managed. No longer is it simply about production. Some North American producers such as Barrick have long been running the business in pursuit of shareholder value. Now the larger SA producers are catching up fast. That may be changing their investment outlook, even if there is little help from the gold price.
At the same time, producers are continuing to consolidate their assets - as shown by this week's $2,5bn merger between the two large US producers, Barrick and Homestake.
Last week, Harmony revealed plans to raise R1bn in new equity through a rights issue. Not long ago, that may not have been possible. This company's management has earned a reputation for creating a growth business out of running ageing, low-grade mining operations. But it could hardly be considered a blue chip stock, even in the gold sector.
A successful equity issue will restore its balance sheet after its acquisition of AngloGold's Deelkraal and Elandsrand mines for R1bn, and leave it with funding power for further deals. Acquisitive growth is now a common strategy for these companies.
Another aspect is the rise in gold share prices this year. Despite this sector's image as a risky place for investors, its performance over the past six months has exceeded those in many other areas of the JSE since the start of January. The JSE Gold index has risen about 38%, outpacing the Resources index by 8% and the All Share index by 24%.
The usual explanation for the rise in the shares is that investors believe the gold price is going to rise. Perhaps there is more to it. In recent months, the SA gold sector has significantly outperformed the Toronto Gold & Silver index and the Australian Gold index. At the least, these stocks have been rerated against their international rivals.
This is partly because of bid speculation. AngloGold and Gold Fields surged after Anglo American acquired 16%-odd in Gold Fields. Then the De Beers buyout created expectations that AngloGold may follow.
But consider the changes at AngloGold, the world's largest producer with an annual output of about 7m ounces. Only 24% of its free float shares are now held in SA; about 42% is in North America and 17% in the UK and Europe. Its price is driven increasingly from New York, where it was listed a couple of years ago. The two largest categories of institutional holders are value and income investors.
Management is forecasting the group's cash costs this year will drop to $190/oz and more than half its cash earnings will be derived from outside SA. Though capex will be high over the next couple of years, it expects to generate significant incremental cash from 2003. That suggests useful growth in dividends and a rising yield, which now stands at 4,7%.
Chairman Bobby Godsell said last week AngloGold is the largest producer, with 9% of new mine production, in a highly fragmented industry."No truly global players yet exists," he added."If production is ever to be sensibly matched to market conditions fewer, larger players with a broader range of production options, must come to exist."
His call was answered from North America. A Barrick/Homestake merger will create the world's number two producer, with output of about 6m ounces. Analysts say the new management will soon cut Homestake's production costs.
Cost cutting alone will not create a growth industry. The shares may have had their run for now. However, the progress some of these companies are making towards managing for profit margins and equity returns should at least support confidence in the sector.
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