MUST READ!...

verfasst von JüKü, 19.07.2000, 14:24

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... wenigstens ab dem Nasdaq-Comp.-Chart (etwa in der Mitte).

Auszug:
As always, history offers many priceless financial lessons for those willing to listen. From its closing top of 381 in September 1929 to its closing bottom of 41 in July 1932, the DJIA dropped a bone-chilling 89%. If the coming NASDAQ debacle unfolds similarly to the DJIA after the 1929 crash, it will be trading at 620 in 2002. (No two bubbles burst alike, so the comparisons should not be taken too far, but the magnitude of the resulting burst is usually similar across eras, markets, and nations.) Even more interesting, however, was the huge dead cat bounce of the DJIA after its initial slide in 1929. Just as real life bears we discussed above are extremely intelligent and cunning, so are bear markets. The"goal" of the bear market is to lure as many bulls as possible to their doom. In order to accomplish that devious stratagem, a bear market usually takes years, slowly breaking individual investor sentiment over the inquisitor's wheel of ever accumulating losses. The initial drop of the DJIA in 1929 from 381 to 199 was 48%, and took about two months. The recent drop in the NASDAQ from 5050 on March 10 to 3205 on May 26 was 37%, and took approximately two and a half months. Here is where it gets REALLY provocative… From the temporary bottom of 199 in November 1929, the DJIA retraced 55% of its losses, closing near 300 in April 1930. The bull was back, right? Wrong! Contrary to a cacophony of bullish predictions, the DJIA plunged into a gut-wrenching dive and burned in over two years later. DJIA 300 would not be seen again until 1954, an amazing 25 years after the dead cat bounce! (Now THAT is long term! Imagine all the brokerage TV commercials where folks say"dips" don't scare them, because they are LONG-TERM investors, and equity markets ALWAYS rise in value. LOL! They may get a chance to test their resolve and see how"long-term" they really are!)

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gesamter Thread:

• MUST READ!... - JüKü, 19.07.2000, 14:24
  • Re: MUST READ!... - Sascha, 19.07.2000, 18:13
    • Re: MUST READ!... - dottore, 19.07.2000, 18:19
      • Erstmal abwarten....owT - Das Orakel, 20.07.2000, 01:39