Zu Kaffeepreisen, Kaffeeschwemme aus stratfor.com

verfasst von Cosa, 18.07.2001, 22:24

Hallo!

Hier ein interessanter Bericht zum Preisverfall von Kaffee und dessen Auswirkungen

Coffee Glut a Bitter Brew for Producers

Summary

Despite attempts by coffee-producing countries to limit exports
and boost prices, a glut in global coffee supplies will continue.
This will have a severe impact on small farmers and create
serious economic and social challenges for exporting countries in
Latin America, Africa and Asia.

Analysis

In an attempt to counter historically low coffee prices,
Colombia, Costa Rica, Honduras and El Salvador on June 14 agreed
on measures requiring exporters to set aside 5 percent of their
lowest-quality coffee for removal from the market. The deal is
part of a larger push by Brazil and Colombia, the world's two
largest coffee producers, to boost prices through a global
retention scheme.

However, these attempts to create a coffee cartel to balance
global supply and demand will fail without the agreement and
consistent participation of the world's other major producers.
The most likely scenario is that despite the current price
crisis, Colombia and Brazil will be unable to forge an effective
cartel, dooming the market to depressed prices and declining
quality. Meanwhile, coffee-producing countries in Asia, Africa
and Latin America will suffer increasing social and economic
hardship.

Coffee is one of the world's most widely traded commodities. It
is produced in more than 60 countries and provides a livelihood
for some 100 million people worldwide. A majority of exporting
countries are in the developing world and depend heavily on
coffee, which can account for more than 80 percent of their total
export earnings, according to the International Coffee
Organization.

The organization estimates that global retail coffee sales exceed
$50 billion annually. According to the National Coffee
Association, Americans consume 353 million cups of coffee every
day, or 129 billion cups a year.

The effects of low wholesale prices are not passed on to
consumers in the form of cheaper cups of coffee. The export price
of coffee beans accounts for only 7 percent of the retail price,
according to Oxfam International, a confederation of
nongovernmental organizations. In fact, consumers would
experience the effects of a cartel's failure in the form of
poorer-quality beans flooding the market. Producing countries at
the same time will experience even more negative ramifications.

Producers already are suffering from price declines. According to
Sergio Amaral, president of the Association of Coffee Producing
Countries (ACPC), average coffee supplies increased 3.6 percent
annually over the past five years, but consumption grew only 1.5
percent. The oversupply has collapsed coffee prices, which this
year reached historic lows in real terms: averaging 49 cents per
pound through the first four months of this year contrasted with
a peak annual average of $1.50 per pound in 1995.

Several factors contribute to the oversupply. The collapse in
1989 of the International Coffee Agreement, which established
export quotas between consumer and producer countries, coincided
with the liberalization of global coffee markets and the
privatization of coffee boards in producing countries, thereby
reducing government control over exports. Gains in productivity
and expanded production in many countries, particularly Vietnam,
also undermined prices, as did currency devaluations in many
developing countries in the late 1990s.

In response to the glut, Brazil and Colombia are working through
the ACPC to implement a global retention plan. The ACPC, a quasi-
cartel that seeks to promote coordination of supplies and
discipline among producer countries, has 14 ratified member
countries and another 14 signatory members. Conspicuously absent,
however, are the world's third-, fifth- and ninth-largest
suppliers: Vietnam, Mexico and Ethiopia. About 38.6 percent of
coffee supply and 37.6 percent of exports come from non-ACPC
ratified members.

The holes in ACPC membership complicate efforts to implement the
retention plan. The plan calls for all participants to
voluntarily retain 20 percent of coffee exports in government or
public warehouses until the average 15-day composite price
reaches 95 cents per pound; these stocks could be released when
the price reaches $1.05. Even though non-ACPC producers including
Vietnam and Mexico have vowed to participate, the retention plan
has failed to boost prices to date: In fact, prices fell from a
monthly average of 56.4 cents in October 2000, when the plan took
effect, to a 45.4 cent composite price on July 9.

Controlling prices through a cartel is inherently more difficult
for agricultural products than for commodities such as oil. While
known oil supplies are fairly finite in the short term, weather
or disease can drastically alter the crop outlook on an almost
daily basis. This uncertainty decreases the incentive for a
country and its farmers to voluntarily restrict production or
destroy stocks.

This disincentive is compounded in the case of coffee. Unlike
with oil production, which is usually government-controlled, a
majority of the world's coffee beans are produced on small farms
and exported by a variety of companies. Many poorer countries
depend on coffee for export revenues -- 65 percent of Ethiopian
export earnings, for instance, come from coffee -- and would be
unwilling or unable to implement production controls.

Retention is also very expensive, requiring governments to
purchase and store millions of bags from farmers and exporters.
According to the Africa News Service, Brazil has earmarked $282
million to take 5 million bags off the market; excess stocks
alone are expected to reach 26.3 million bags globally by year
end, according to the United States Foreign Agricultural Service.

The retention plan also leaves wide margins for cheating. If
prices remain depressed, countries will lose faith in the scheme
and abandon it. If prices begin to rise, countries, especially
those who have not agreed to the retention scheme, will have more
incentive to dump excess stocks onto the market.

Finally, the world's largest producers, Brazil, Colombia and
Indonesia, are confronting serious military or economic
difficulties that could further undermine their ability to
implement production controls.

The continued glut will have substantial social and economic
affects on developing countries throughout Latin America, Africa
and Asia. Millions of farmers could be forced to abandon their
farms, increasing unemployment, urbanization and crime.

The crisis in coffee bean prices will brew a bitter cup for
producers and consumers alike.

Quelle: der tägliche newsletter von stratfor.com

Gruss
Cosa




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• Zu Kaffeepreisen, Kaffeeschwemme aus stratfor.com - Cosa, 18.07.2001, 22:24