Re: Für Sascha - was zum kauen

verfasst von R.Deutsch, 21.08.2001, 16:23

Zum Glück ist ja dottore nicht da - würde ihn sicher ärgern, dass ich wieder so einen"Schmarrn" hier unkommentiert reinsetze - aber irgendwie habe ich Spaß an solchen Denkspielen und vielleicht gefällts ja anderen auch. Auf alle Fälle kostet es Kraft.


Current Economic Snapshot August 2001 - Perhaps the Gold Standard is Just Around the Corner!!!!!!

This executive summary on the current state of the Economy is made for the 21st century manager, who needs hard data
in a short and comprehensible format.
The author apologizes for the longer than usual format. Current developments warrant it.


General Commentary:

Recently the SDR and SDR certificate issue has been heating up, as it was discovered by the outstanding work of Mr.
Turk, and further researched by Mr. Bolser, that the SDR certificates account of the FED and ESF have been diminishing
quite rapidly over the last few years.

Regardless of the fact that SDR certificates may or may not be claims to US gold, the current elimination of the
outstanding SDR certificates is"One Important and Necessary step in the long road to implementation of a Gold
Standard".

In effect, if the currency has reached the end of its time line, and there is a need to replace it, perhaps by going back to a
Gold Standard, then The Federal Reserve would need to be abolished.

This is the only one way to eliminate inflation, as well as the chronic booms and busts, which are starting to happen with
increased frequency and magnitude.
The so called business cycle is just a byproduct of the inflationary nature of our current monetary structure. The more
inflation there is in the currency, the higher the magnitude and frequency of the peaks and troughs in the cycle.

So, let's imagine for a minute that indeed this was going to happen.
The easiest way to abolish the FED with be to liquidate its assets and parcel them out to its creditors, the banks.

The Fed assets currently stand approximately in the order of $624 billion, and in simplified form can be described as
follows:

US Government and Other Federal Securities...........$ 539.746 billion
Other F.R. Assets....................................$ 38.180 billion
Gold Stock...........................................$ 11.04 billion
SDR Certificates.....................................$ 2.2 billion
Treasury Currency Outstanding........................$ 32.754 billion

In the case that our hypothesis would become a real event, The Government and Other Federal Securities should be
canceled. This action would reduce promptly the taxpayers liability on the Public Debt by $560 billion.
Other F.R. Assets also should be liquidated, and perhaps a little bit of these assets could be salvaged.
Treasury Currency should also be cancelled and the Keynesian SDR experiment as well.
At the end we are left with only and approximately $11 billion of the Fed's only real asset: It's Gold Stock.

On the liabilities side, there are approximately $ 15 billion in capital which should be written off in the liquidation process
as well as about $ 4 billion of Treasury deposits.

This would leave us with $ 11 billion of Gold Stock to balance out $605 billion in liabilities.

For our hypothetical Gold Standard scenario to occur, the $11 billion in gold stock would need to be revalued to cancel out
the $605 billion in liabilities left.
Since there are about 261.5 million of gold ounces in the US reserve, gold would need to be revalued to $ 2,313 / ounce, or
put in another way, the dollar would be defined as 1/2313 of a gold ounce.

After this revaluation took place, the Fed could be liquidated and the gold stock parcelled out to its creditors. Federal
Reserve notes could be recalled and exchanged for gold coins minted at the Treasury. Banks' demand deposits at the Fed
would be exchanged for gold bullion which would be allocated to the vaults of the banks, with banks' deposits redeemable
to its depositors in gold coin.

However, this hypothetical solution for a gold standard has not addressed the fractional-reserve banking problem. Indeed
the banks, under this scenario, would be forced to be very careful and vigilant, as they have pyramided money on top of
their reserves by the inverse of the fractional reserve ratio requirement.
It would be likely under this scenario, that a further cleansing of the banking system would be accomplished by the
failure of overexposed and overextended banks. A first attempt to quantify the failure rate of the banks would be to
compare the Fed liquidation gold calculated price with the Demand Money calculated gold price of $12,300 / ounce, ie. a
ratio of approximately 5.3.
This means that banks in order to survive, would need to increase their reserves by at least 5.3 times or approximately
increase their reserves from 10% to 50%.
This would tend to contract the"golden" money supply by 80% in the end. This grim scenario, in other words, the
Hyper-Inflationary Depression concept that the author has struggled to convey, would slowly take us to the 100%
reserve requirement banking that would cleanse the economy.

What all of this means is that to cleanse the system and fix it, and remove legalized counterfeiting and fraud, by first
introducing a Gold Standard to liquidate the FED, and second by going back to free banking and 100% reserve
requirement, then either gold needs to be revalued to at least $12,300/ounce (HyperInflation effect), or Gold would be
left as it is and the currency would be allowed to contract by 97% or $280/$12,300 (80% from fractional reserve going
from 10% to 50% at commercial banks and 17% from Fed pyramiding effect) (Depression effect), or any combination in
between (Hyper-Inflationary Depression effect). Interestingly, the BLS and the Fed tell us that 1 current dollar buys 5%
of what a 1913 dollar would buy. If we take out the hedonics of the calculation, most probably we would arrive to a 3%
figure or 97% depreciation instead of the claimed 95% purchasing loss, which ties in with our 97% contractionary effect
hypothesis.

By the way, it would appear as if the 15% gold reserve requirement of the Euro could be designed to accomplish the
survival of the Euro under a Gold Standard with 15% fractional reserve requirement for commercial banks and little or
no pyramiding from the central bank itself; and they could live very well with gold valued in the $2k US range. Step one
of our hypothesis is partially accomplished, as the Euro is still not gold convertible.

Given the apparently insurmountable problem that the banking system is faced with, the author would be content
enough if the first step was accomplished.
The second one, with care, patience and a LONG TIME, could be accomplished by exchanging part of the real productivity
gains by increased reserves, instead of stealing them by inflationary effects. In this way, the increased reserves would be
transformed into relatively less money supply for a given output and we would see a correspondingly small decrease in
prices which would be GOOD for us all.
The other part of the productivity gains could be used to maintain a growing economy and at least sustain wages
(increased wealth) if done properly.

The conclusion that the author draws from the previous mental exercise, is that the gold theft has perhaps been
accomplished long ago, and that currently there is a lot of movement in the accounting side in preparation for
"something".

Let us hope that this"something" is a return to a clean Gold Standard, because the US Gold eventually will return to the
banks, courtesy of the taxpayers, IN ONE WAY OR ANOTHER, GOLD OR NO GOLD STANDARD, Fractional Reserve
or 100% Banking system in place.


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gesamter Thread:

• Es gibt wichtigere Dinge zu tun. - le chat, 21.08.2001, 15:36
  • Re: Es gibt wichtigere Dinge zu tun. / Zustimmung - ManfredF, 21.08.2001, 15:57
  • Zwischen rausschmeissen und tolerieren... - Tofir, 21.08.2001, 16:08
  • Re: Es gibt wichtigere Dinge zu tun. / + Appell! - Sascha, 21.08.2001, 16:09
    • Re: Für Sascha - was zum kauen - R.Deutsch, 21.08.2001, 16:23
      • Danke Reinhard! Ich werde es mir jetzt mal reinziehen ;) - Viele Grüße -owT- - Sascha, 21.08.2001, 16:45
      • Re: Goldpreisaufwertung viel zu niedrig! - dottore, 23.08.2001, 14:04
        • Re: Kraft kostet es immer die anderen - R.Deutsch, 23.08.2001, 15:18
          • Re: Kraft kostet es immer die anderen / NEIN, lass es nicht! oT - JüKü, 23.08.2001, 16:09
          • Re: Kraft kostet es immer die anderen - dottore, 23.08.2001, 16:55
  • Re: Es gibt wichtigere Dinge zu tun. - JÃœKÃœ, 21.08.2001, 17:09
    • Re: Es gibt wichtigere Dinge zu tun. - SchlauFuchs, 21.08.2001, 17:16
      • Re: Es gibt wichtigere Dinge zu tun. / StatusTreffen - JüKü, 21.08.2001, 17:32