Interviev mit Gold-Analyst von HSBC

verfasst von Günter, 19.09.2001, 14:29

Posted: 2001/09/19 Wed 10:09 | © Miningweb 1997-2001


JOHANNESBURG - Here is the transcript from a Moneyweb radio interview last night with Rob Edwards, gold analyst at HSBC.
MONEYWEB: Rob Edwards is a gold analyst at HSBC. Rob, just take us through that rationale of gold being a good investment in times of crisis.

ROB EDWARDS: Well the thing is, Bruce, that gold, although it is a very low-yielding kind of asset, it is unlikely to fall because it's not widely held, it is a currency and, although it has traditionally been a bellwether of good support in times of need, it's more likely to stay still than go up majorly. It hasn't really reacted strongly to political uncertainty since Anwar Sadat was assassinated back in the early eighties. But we have seen renewed retail interest and for the first time today - I believe for the first time in living memory - actually someone from off the street went into a branch of HSBC in UK and ordered £100,000 worth of gold in his personal name. So if that is any indication of what the future holds then it could be interesting times ahead.

MONEYWEB: That is a very, very unusual step and it does perhaps show investor psychology at its very strangest. But are we likely to see the Bank of England, for example, put a moratorium on its gold auctions which it's been holding fairly regularly for several years now?

ROB EDWARDS: Well, I doubt it. You've got consistent central bank selling. I mean central banks' comments on the current situation is that they're kind of mildly encouraging the price up. They're also saying on the side that they intend selling into the price strength. We certainly don't expect any review of the Washington Accord at this stage. Clearly central banks have indicated for some time they do have excess gold and it's almost a zero-yielding asset, even if US interest rates fall further. I mean, really, you've got gold having a sniff of a chance of having a higher yield than the US dollar. We still think gold's going to be gradually sold off. The only time we could see a major trigger for a change in attitudes towards gold as an investment vehicle is when the Washington Accord expires in a couple of years' time, or the central bank actually comes out and says we're not going to sell any more. You could see variations in the liquidity in a lending market which is important. But it's important, and maybe this really sums it up, during the whole period of last week where, if there was ever an environment where you were going to see gold really, really rally, lease rates did absolutely nothing - which is an indication that there still is no demand for gold by the real market-makers, i.e. producers, bullion banks and the strong physical markets.

MONEYWEB: So do you anticipate that the current volatility in the gold price is going to be fairly short-lived as long as we don't get into any sort of extended conflict in the northern hemisphere?

ROB EDWARDS: I think so, yes. Spikes like this do tend to retrace back. We're looking for support at $285 to $286. Any external development, obviously, can have an impact on the price at present. We have seen continued support at grass roots level. Individual purchasers, as I've said before, are still looking to buy the metal, but interest is really concentrated in some of the Eastern markets - Thailand, Vietnam and Japan and the Far East. The Middle East, which is one market where you would have maybe seen expected to see some spare cash go into gold, has been net down for the week, so at times like this it's easy to hark back to the days when gold was going to look to rally - but gold really has disconnected from its traditional triggers. It's a different market, it's a very steady market, and it's a liquid market, and it's a market that's seen consistent selling over the last three or four years. I mean, gold has been in an upward trend since Christmas and obviously, relative to a basket of commodities, we still expect it to outperform and that goes for the equities as well. But don't look for any major rallies in the price at this stage.

MONEYWEB: Could we see the gold price go through, say, $300 if there is a extended period of uncertainty, say for the next six to 12 months?

ROB EDWARDS: I 'm being a bit bearish, but gold is definitely still seen as being the global panic barometer, if you want to put it that way. I think gold won't necessarily be allowed to go through $300. I think central banks will introduce liquidity to keep it below the $300 level. I think $300 may be seen. Anything can happen over the next couple of weeks, but I think if we do - and I really doubt we do - it will be very short lived.

MONEYWEB: Does it follow necessarily that a stronger gold price or a volatile gold price means higher prices on gold shares?

ROB EDWARDS: During the first half of the year we saw gold shares discount higher gold prices in anticipation of a rally. That anticipation was based on the fact that we are, for the first time in almost 20 years, going onto a US-led global slowdown. The dollar had been very strong and we were expecting some relative weakness of the dollar to a trade-weighted basket of currencies, to which gold strength is very closely inversely correlated. The gold shares were already discounting a $290 to $300 gold price and, for that reason I think, almost last week's kind of very jittery reaction - and almost a bit of an anticlimax reaction to what was a completely unprecedented and tragic event - has maybe left a lot of people who were holding gold shares a little disappointed. I think people will continue to hold them. And you've got to remember that most South African fund managers have very, very little gold exposure. Obviously the strength of those gold shares over that period has emphasised gold shares' use as a portfolio-diversification instrument. I think we're going to see a phase of a bit of profit-taking over the next couple of weeks but I would still recommend that people have them as a portfolio-diversification instrument. I think they're a worthwhile consideration.

MONEYWEB: Are there particular gold shares at the moment that could benefit more than others in current uncertainty?

ROB EDWARDS: Well, the market will follow the players that are unhedged and follow the players that also have existing capacity, existing infrastructure that can exploit any continued rise in the gold price into a very fast reaction in terms of production growth. Harmony's got to be the best-placed gold share that we have in this market for that, followed by Gold Fields Ltd and Anglo Gold after that. Certainly Harmony, which had issued quite a bit of paper into the market in to the middle of the year, has been performing very strongly over the last couple of weeks. I think that will continue to be well supported.

MONEYWEB: Rob Edwards, gold analyst at HSBC. A fairly bearish look on gold there. He says they expect to have support at $285 to $286 per ounce. Doesn't expect it to go through $300 for very long, if in fact it does, and if you are looking for some gold share to buy at the moment, Harmony and Gold Fields are his picks.





<center>

<HR>

</center>

Thread gesperrt

 

gesamter Thread:

• Interviev mit Gold-Analyst von HSBC - Günter, 19.09.2001, 14:29
  • dazu sollte man bedenken... - Tofir, 19.09.2001, 15:29
    • Das ist anzunehmen! Mal gucken wer Recht hat.... - Günter, 19.09.2001, 15:35
  • Der lügt uns frech ins Gesicht, weil... - Hirscherl, 19.09.2001, 17:02