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Mix-Ansicht- wo sind sie geblieben, die viel umjubelten Überschüsse im US-Haushalt? - Ghandi, 21.09.2001, 22:32
- :) - Turon, 21.09.2001, 23:52
wo sind sie geblieben, die viel umjubelten Überschüsse im US-Haushalt?
Washington, Sept. 21 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. government reported the largest monthly budget deficit on record in August, as lower income tax withholding rates and a cooling economy reduced receipts.
The $80 billion excess of expenditures over receipts last month compares with a $10.4 billion deficit in August last year, according to the Treasury Department's monthly budget statement. That's the largest gap since monthly records began in 1968. The previous record was a $53.4 billion shortfall in May 1991.
The government still expects to record its fourth straight annual surplus in the fiscal year that ends this month. Government spending aimed at boosting an economy that's on the precipice of recession and financing a military response in the aftermath of the worst-ever terrorist attack may eliminate an expected surplus next year.
``There's a good chance the surpluses could disappear by next year,'' said Scott Brown, an economist at Raymond James & Associates in St. Petersburg, Florida. ``That isn't a big worry at this point. The main priority has to be getting the economy back on track.''
The government has recorded a $91.8 billion surplus so far this fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30. That compares with $171.2 billion surplus recorded for the first 11 months of last year. Analysts expected a $60 billion deficit for August.
In August, spending surged 36.3 percent to $202.5 billion. About $40 billion in payments, including $28 billion in Social Security benefits, normally paid in early September were instead disbursed in the final week of August because of the Labor Day holiday on Sept. 3, the Congressional Budget Office said last week.
Tax Collections Fall
Government revenue fell 11.3 percent from the same month last year to $122.6 billion as tax collections from individuals and corporations fell. It also reflected $17.5 billion in advance tax refunds, which were part of the 10-year, $1.35 trillion tax cut passed by Congress in June.
Individual income tax collections last month were $52 billion, compared with $68 billion last year. Corporate tax payments in August totaled $3.1 billion, down from $4.7 billion a year ago.
The CBO said last month that it expects the total surplus for the fiscal year to be $153 billion, 44 percent less than its May estimate of $275 billion. The weakening economy accounts for about $25 billion of that revision. The CBO projected a surplus of $176 billion for fiscal 2002.
Military spending is likely ``to go through the roof'' as the U.S. prepares to go to war with terrorists that destroyed New York's World Trade Center and damaged the Pentagon last week, said Chris Rupkey, senior financial economist at Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi Ltd. said.
The surplus may be less after the government passed legislation to increase spending following the terrorist attack last week. President George W. Bush signed into law this week a $40 billion emergency spending package for rebuilding and relief.
More Spending
The measure splits the $40 billion into two parts, with half of coming from the current fiscal year and the rest from next fiscal year's budget.
More spending is on the way. The House plans to vote today on a $15 billion package, including $5 billion in direct aid and $10 billion in guaranteed loans, aimed at helping airlines avoid bankruptcy and recover costs from last week's shutdown caused by terrorist attacks. Northwest Airlines Corp. said it's eliminating 10,000 jobs, or 19 percent of its workforce, because the attacks frightened away passengers and raised security costs.
Northwest, which began cutting 20 percent of its flights last week, joins rivals such as AMR Corp.'s American Airlines, UAL Corp.'s United Airlines and Continental Airlines Inc. in reducing jobs and capacity.
The Bush administration, congressional leaders and Federal Reserve policy makers have been meeting this week to discuss ways to stimulate the economy. A capital gains tax cut, increased unemployment insurance benefits, an investment tax credit and tax refund checks for low-income workers are being considered, according to legislators and administration officials.
Recession?
The economy grew at a 0.2 percent annual rate in the second quarter, the slowest in eight years, government figures showed. Gross domestic product will probably contract by a 0.5 percent annual rate in the current quarter and by 0.7 percent in the final three months of the year, according to a Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey.
Rising unemployment is also likely to increase federal expenditures. For each 1 percentage-point rise in the U.S. unemployment rate, the budget surplus is reduced by $40 billion, said Stanley Collender, budget analyst with Fleishman-Hillard Inc. in Washington.
The shrinking surplus has led the Treasury to temporarily suspend its program to buy back securities to reduce the amount of outstanding federal debt and reduce interest-rate costs. Budget surpluses have enabled the Treasury to pay off maturing debt and issue fewer new securities. Since the start of the buybacks last year, the Treasury has repurchased $55 billion in outstanding securities. The Treasury said it would resume the program in October.
During fiscal 2000, the government reported a record $236.7 billion surplus, following carryovers of $124.4 billion in fiscal 1999 and $69.2 billion in fiscal 1998, according to the Treasury's budget statistics.
The last time Washington reported three straight budget surpluses was after World War II -- 1947, 1948 and 1949. The last time the Treasury reported a longer stretch of consecutive annual budget surpluses was 1919-1930, between World War I and the Great Depression.
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