Board-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht- Meldung zum kaspischen Ã-lvorkommen - JüKü, 16.10.2001, 10:44
Meldung zum kaspischen Ã-lvorkommen
ALMATY, Oct 15 (Reuters) - The loading of the first crude from a new $2.5 billion pipeline from Kazakhstan to Russia and the West shows the Caspian's vast oil wealth can be tapped despite current tensions in the region, analysts said on Monday.
They said future oil pipeline projects may be delayed by U.S.-British air strikes on Afghanistan but the potential of the energy-rich sea will ensure the pause is only temporary even if not all planned Caspian projects are ever realised.
The first crude was loaded from Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) pipeline on Monday, eight days after the strikes began.
"This (the raids on Afghanistan) is of course a massive complication, but it's not as if everything was plain sailing before the strikes," said Roland Nash, chief economist at Renaissance Capital in Moscow.
"There's just far too much vested economic interest in the Caspian. I am convinced that at some point pipelines will get built," he said.
Afghanistan shares a border with just one of the sea's five littoral countries, Turkmenistan, while Kazakhstan borders Turkmenistan and Afghan neighbour Uzbekistan.
The other Caspian states are Russia, Iran and Azerbaijan.
Beyond the current troubles in the region, friction over territorial rights in the sea have been a constant problem and intensified this year when Iranian gunboats chased off an Azeri vessel which was exploring disputed waters.
CPC FIRST OF SEVERAL EYED PIPES
The CPC, with initial capacity of 28.2 million tonnes a year (around 560,000 barrels a day) and estimated final capacity will be 67 million tonnes, is the first of a number Caspian Sea pipeline projects.
CPC, led by Chevron <CHV.N> and involving Russia, Kazahstan and other top multi-national firms, was originally intended to open in June but customs problems and technical hitches delayed it.
It was built exclusively to transport oil from the huge north Caspian Tengiz field in Kazakhstan to Russia's Novorissisk port on the Black Sea.
Oil from potential fields in the southern part of the sea now has only limited possibilities to reach international markets and analysts have said not all pipes being eyed to exploit those fields are likely to ever reach fruition.
Support had been growing for a $3 billion U.S.-backed pipe from Azeri capital Baku to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, and while this project is seen with a chance of being realised, a cheaper line running through Iran is seen unlikely.
The United States, seeking to increase its influence in the region, has been promoting routes west which avoid Russia.
"Baku-Ceyhan will probably go ahead eventually due to significant political support from the United States, although its economics do not look very attractive," said Leonid Mirzoyan at Deutsche Bank in Moscow.
"Economically, the Iranian one is the most attractive, but for political reasons I do not think there is any chance it will go ahead now," he said.
Caspian oil would begin to look good as a secure source if retaliatory terrorist action was to hit oil terminals in Middle East OPEC states.
"Baku-Ceyhan could gain even more support the U.S. administration because of potential tension in the Middle East," Mirozoyan said.
Another pipeline, the Baltic Pipeline System which will be able to transport some Kazakh oil to Baltic ports, will be working by the end of the year.
Existing pipelines built during Soviet times also have limited potential to carry Caspian oil.
"Economic interests have overcome everything in the area so far. I think the worst case scenario is a delay," said Nash.
<center>
<HR>
</center>
Thread gesperrtgesamter Thread:
