Hier meine Antwort an Butler

verfasst von Theo Stuss, 16.10.2001, 12:21

Dear Mr Butler,

as base of discussion I put your letter in front. My questions follow behind.


Letter to COMEX Oct 8th 2001

October 8, 2001

Vincent Viola
Chairman
J. Robert Collins, Jr.
President
New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc.
One North End Avenue
World Financial Center
New York, NY 10282

Dear Mr. Viola and Mr. Collins:

This is to inform you that there is a serious and dangerous problem
in the silver futures market on the Commodity Exchange, Inc.
(COMEX), according to the just-released Commitment of Traders
Report (COT). The COT of Oct. 5, 2001, for positions as of Oct. 2,
clearly indicates a manipulation in progress. The amount of net short
contracts held by the large commercial category (normally considered
COMEX insiders), is obscene and preposterous in regards to market
concentration and compared to silver in the real world. There is no
way, that a reasonable person would not conclude that the
commercials' silver short position is both manipulative to the silver
price, and an extreme danger to the very existence of your
exchange.

In the past three weeks, the large commercials have increased their
net short position by 175 million ounces, or 350%, to 225 million
ounces net short. Last week alone, the large commercials sold net
short over 90 million ounces of paper silver futures contracts. Large
commercials now make up 80% of the entire futures short position.
The price of silver would be materially higher, were it not for this
manipulative and uneconomic naked short selling. The additional
175 million ounces sold short, in just three weeks, is more than any
country can produce in two years or much longer. It is more than all
known silver stockpiles in the entire world. It is not possible for the
short selling of 175 million ounces of silver, in a three week period,
not to manipulate the price.

Worse, the concentration of silver short positions among the large
commercials is troubling. Four or less traders hold 130 million ounces
net short. That's also greater than all known silver bullion in the
world, and more than any country produces annually. Unless these 4
or less traders own all the silver in the world, and then some, then
this is a starkly naked short position. To claim it might be a mining
hedge, considering the trading history of the large commercials,
would defy logic. To claim that it might be a hedge of metal
inventories would be silly. Did someone just come into 175 million
ounces of real silver in the past three weeks? It is obvious that the
large commercials are masquerading as hedgers - they are
speculators, pure and simple. By pretending to be hedgers, these
large commercials seek protection from basic commodity law which
proscribes that speculators not influence prices unduly. To be clear,
the four or less traders in the commercial category are manipulators,
or represent manipulators. There is absolutely no economic purpose
to their naked short position, save to depress the price of silver. You
must put an end to this manipulation.

On top of all the above, the Sep. 11 horror buried the 30 million
ounces of silver in the Scotia Mocatta warehouse, rendering it
unavailable for a long time. This 30 million ounces makes up 30% of
the entire COMEX silver inventory, the largest in the world. In fact,
the buried and unavailable silver comprises 25% of total known world
silver bullion inventory. One quarter of all known silver bullion in the

world is made unavailable overnight, and COMEX insider commercials
rush to sell short obscene amounts, on a 50 cent rally? Who do these
insiders think they are?

I am a silver analyst who has consistently recommended COMEX
silver warehouse receipts as the best method for holding physical
silver in size. Many people have taken my advice, and have
purchased these receipts. But, I must tell you, I am troubled by what
I see. First off, I am troubled that the COMEX has not been
forthcoming with public assurances that all the silver involved in the
WTC 4 warehouse is fully insured and that the owners will be
protected. All the insurance companies came forth, with great fanfare,
to proclaim there would be no attempt to invoke war or terrorist
exclusions in any WTC-insured losses. The COMEX's silence, on this
matter, is conspicuous and disturbing. Second, the sheer mismatch
between the extreme and concentrated commercial naked short
position, jumping 350% in three weeks, and the suddenly-reduced
available physical silver inventory, is most alarming. Inventory is
effectively sharply reduced, and the insiders short position explodes
350%. A reasonable person would contemplate default. This is your
notice, that if we do have a default in COMEX silver, or any market
emergencies related to restricting the rights of bona fide long
contract holders, it will be because of the concentrated commercial
COMEX- insider shorts.

No other market in the world, just COMEX silver, has such a large,
concentrated short position, where a few traders are allowed to be
short more than, literally, all the known material in the world. Given
the magnitude of the concentrated naked short position and the
condition of the Scotia Mocatta facility, I call on you to rectify this
outrageous situation immediately. It is your responsibility to end the
clear short side manipulation in silver by these insider crooks. I
understand that you are new to COMEX leadership, and your
backgrounds don't indicate a close association with the commercial
insider manipulators. If you don't end their crooked activities, you
will
be sanctioning those activities.

I have no other way of ending the silver manipulation, aside from
notifying you or writing about it in the public domain. It is not my
intent to inflame the situation. I would prefer you reigned in the
out-of-control insider manipulators - that's what self-regulation is
supposed to be about. However, if you choose not to address this
issue, or tell me why I'm off-base, I will have no other choice but to
publicly present the facts as I see them, and let people make up
their own minds. If I don't hear from you by my next publishing
deadline, close of business Wednesday, Oct. 10, 2001, I'll assume
you have aligned yourself with the insider crooks.

Ted Butler


***********************************************************************

my questions:

your are talking of approximately 170Mio onces above ground inventory stockpiles which have to cope with about 175Mio net shorts recently.

For the last year the Silver Institute detected 500Mio ounces of stock piles and a silver analyst in Munich told me, that there are now 320Mio ounces left thus Buffet owns around 130Mio ounces. If you reduce Buffet's 130Mio from the total stock piles of 320Mio, we arrive at 190Mio ounces. Once again we reduce 30Mio ounces, buried in the cellars of the WTC, we get 160Mio ounces.

Is my calculation o.k., or do you really want to say, that including Buffets silver, there are only 170Mio ounces left?

Second, I believe that shorts of paper silver refer to attempts of traders to reinvest only a part of the money (50%?) into physical silver, because inventories decreased. By shorting paper they press down also the price of physical silver. If they reinvest let's say 50% of the money into real stuff, they can hide the manipulation, because the"weigh" of net shorts and longs is on the side of the shorts, while knowing that the real stuff will make the"touch-down". While hedging physical silver, they hide their purchases behind larger net shorts of papers.

Am I right?

respectfully,

T.S.


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gesamter Thread:

• Zur Preismanipulation bei Silber - R.Deutsch, 16.10.2001, 11:07
  • Vielleicht verkauft Buffet... - pecunia, 16.10.2001, 11:53
    • Re: Vielleicht verkauft Buffet... - BossCube, 16.10.2001, 11:59
      • Sorry, da komm ich nicht ganz mit... - pecunia, 16.10.2001, 12:07
        • Re: Sorry, da komm ich nicht ganz mit... - Pancho, 16.10.2001, 12:17
        • Re: Sorry, da komm ich nicht ganz mit... - BossCube, 16.10.2001, 12:19
          • Re: Sorry, da komm ich nicht ganz mit... - pecunia, 16.10.2001, 12:41
            • Re: Sorry, da komm ich nicht ganz mit... - SchlauFuchs, 16.10.2001, 12:49
            • Re: Sorry, da komm ich nicht ganz mit... - BossCube, 16.10.2001, 14:20
          • Re: Sorry, da komm ich nicht ganz mit... - Euklid, 16.10.2001, 12:54
        • Re: Sorry, da komm ich nicht ganz mit... - Theo Stuss, 16.10.2001, 12:33
      • Sehe ich auch so... - Hirscherl, 16.10.2001, 12:12
        • Re: Sehe ich auch so... - Diogenes, 16.10.2001, 12:18
  • was meinst du? mkt - Tölzer, 16.10.2001, 12:02
  • was meinst du? mkt - Tölzer, 16.10.2001, 12:13
  • Hier meine Antwort an Butler - Theo Stuss, 16.10.2001, 12:21
  • Sehr wahrscheinlich hat Buffett einen Teil seines Silbers sogar verliehen.... - Tofir, 16.10.2001, 13:46
    • Re: Sehr wahrscheinlich hat Buffett einen Teil seines Silbers sogar verliehen.... - Theo Stuss, 16.10.2001, 14:21
  • Silber steht in New York seit über einer Stunde stramm, nichts passiert... - Theo Stuss, 16.10.2001, 15:18