Erinnerungen... Prof. Krugman (heute Princeton) im Mai 1998 in"Fortune":

verfasst von dottore, 25.10.2001, 14:32

Hi,

Krugman ist bekannt und er hat's auch gerochen - schon lange vor dem ATH:

[i]Any broker can tell you that in the last few months the market has been rising, despite mediocre earnings news, because of fresh purchases by ever more people distraught about having missed out on previous gains and desperate to get in on the action.

Sooner or later the supply of such people will run out; then what?

OK, OK, I know that this isn't supposed to happen. Sophisticated investors are supposed to take the long view, and arbitrage away these boom-bust cycles. And maybe, just maybe, the market is where it is because wise and far-seeing people have understood that the New Economy can produce growing
profits forever, and that the rise of mutual funds has eliminated the need for old-fashioned risk premia.

But my sense is that people who try to take a long view have been driven to the edge of extinction by the sheer scale of recent gains, and that the supposed explanations you now hear of why current prices make sense are rationalizations rather than serious theories.

<font color="FF0000">The whole situation gives me the chills. It could be that I just don't get it, that I'm a Neanderthal too thick-skulled to understand the new era.

But if you ask me, I'd say that there's an Ice Age just over the horizon.</font>

Tja, nu simmer hinterm Horizont and can see clearly now... The Ice Age!

Oder glaubt noch wer an wirtschaftsklimatologische Wunder?

Gruß

d.

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gesamter Thread:

• Erinnerungen... Prof. Krugman (heute Princeton) im Mai 1998 in"Fortune": - dottore, 25.10.2001, 14:32
  • Schon richtig, dottore, aber vor 3 Jahren schrieb Krugman, ganz anders: - Galiani, 25.10.2001, 22:54
    • Re: Schon richtig, dottore, aber vor 3 Jahren schrieb Krugman, ganz anders: - dottore, 26.10.2001, 10:18
      • @dottore: Vollkommen richtig! Genau das hatte Krugman übersehen. Gruß (owT) - Galiani, 27.10.2001, 13:11