uups

verfasst von dira, 22.11.2001, 19:57

>- Super Cycle III im Dow kulminiert bei ca. 13000
>- 50% Korrektur (analog zu SPX) ergibt 6500 bis 2004
>- 400% Gewinn (analog zu Hightechs) resultiert in 26000 bis 2012.
wären natürlich demnach sogar 32500!

>Sind diese Annahmen realistisch?
>>Following the -50% financial-market cleansing of excess liquidity and over-valuations during SPX Cycle IV anticipated for 2004, a period of renewed growth and prosperity in Cycle V -- with biotech and spacetech driving a +400% bull market -- will culminate with a severe exogenous shock in 2012. This peak will bring to an end the whole series of Supercycle Five (Post-War Prosperity since 1949), Grand Supercycle [Five] (Anglo-American Growth and Dominance since 1780), and Tide <One> (Western Ascendancy since 1200 AD). The catalyst for terminating this first bull run of the 21st century and American primacy -- and mark the start of a lengthy and difficult period of transition to Eastern leadership -- may be either of a political / military nature (eg. US-China conflict) or of a geo / astrophysical nature (eg. California earthquake or asteroid impact). [See the Waves Paper for full treatment.]
>>The nearterm financial crisis is expected to take the form of a global derivatives meltdown in the context of major players being wiped out by the double-punch of long-side trading losses in 2000-2001 and short-side trading losses in 2002-2003. The fallout from bursting this bubble will exacerbate deflationary tendencies already prevailing in the global economy, but a bear market on the scale of a generational or multi-generational global economic malaise cannot possibly be solely due to financial excess. Certainly the wealth effect from inflated asset prices and wider exposure than previously will contribute to a sharp drop in production, but total spending in the U.S. is not due just to unrealised capital gains on leveraged internet stocks.
>>There will be pain, as with previous bubbles, but the broad mass of investors will not lose all of their capital -- 50% off a top which is 500% above the bottom still leaves a good long-term profit. As already seen with the magnitude of the Nasdaq decline, some recently-begun leveraged high-tech day traders might be cleaned out, and a real recession will take its toll on employment, but within a couple of years most investors will have recovered their capital via other income and savings. Combined with stirrings of real corporate profitability in the current new industries and dreams for the next new hot markets, equities will gradually build another secular upswing.
>>In order to truly destroy a society's desire to invest in the sharemarket, there has to be some real and severe destruction of productive capacity to effectively ratchet long-term expectations lower, or some long-lasting major diversion of public interest -- probably due to fear for their lives as in a war-torn environment -- that takes capital away from the confidence of long-term equity investments.
>>The South Sea Bubble did not cause world equity markets to slump for three generations (although stocks being then such a relatively new thing without a track record perhaps did contribute to a longer-than-usual effect). Rather, other social and political upheavals were operative, and it was not until the dust cleared with a new United States of America did the next Grand Supercycle begin. Likewise, the Crash of 1929 was not the root cause of the Depression -- although it certainly provided a dramatic entree. Rather, big social problems in post WWI Europe with German hyperinflation leading eventually to WWII were major factors in the generational bear market from 1929-1949. On a lesser scale, the 1970s were not replete with recessions and malaise because of some excess in the Nifty Fifty, but because of much broader and independent problems, both economic (inflation, oil) and political (Vietnam, Watergate, terrorism) in nature.
>>In contrast, where the problem really is purely a matter of financial market excess -- eg. 1987, 1997 -- the market drops, the economy stumbles a bit (or not), and life continues. The current situation (2000-2004) represents a very big financial excess, in part because of the size of the general exposure, breadth of holdings, and margin leverage, but also because of the absolutely huge derivative overlay and systemic vulnerability of financial institutions.
>>The first stage of this rolling valuation adjustment was focused on the tech industry, especially overhyped dotcoms without earnings but also more established sectors like semiconductors and software that were hit in the first wave of reduced IT spending. Senior industrials were not significantly impacted during this phase, and are expected to eventually rally from their DEC01 lows to reach new record highs and complete their Cycle III upswing since 1980 before they too suffer in the Cycle IV collapse.
>>While the overall effect of the manoeuvre -- Tech Crisis 2000 / Growth Crisis 2001 / Rebound 2002 / Derivatives Crisis 2004 -- will be substantially larger than the global losses experienced with the Asia Crisis 1997 or Brazil/Russia/LTCM Crisis 1998, the U.S. economy is also of a size and strength able to take this hit and remain standing, if temporarily dazed. It will take all of its financial sophistication and manipulation and plain old chopping, but the current excess is not bigger than the whole and the burst bubble will be digested. Economically, the situation will be more difficult than 1982, 1987, 1990, or 1994, but less than the 1930s. In fact, it will be on the same scale as the 1970s in Price and briefer in Time (ie. sharp Cycle IV versus flat Cycle II but both about -50%).
>>At the end of the next decade, following a period of growth very similar to the 1980s or 1990s, a rare event like California falling in the ocean because of a natural earthquake or a nuclear strike will be not just a deeper disaster but one that is not so easily overcome. The 20 years or so between 2012-2032 could well be very similar to 1929-1949 as global tension and conflict build. Note that technological advancements will probably accelerate rather than stop during this period, due to military competition, but that does not mean capital will be willing to pay up when surrounded by an uncertain political future.
>>With regard to the expected timing in 2012. This date flows naturally from a typical duration for a bull market following a trough for Cycle IV in 2004, and makes Cycle V one third the length of Cycle III. However, secular shifts (top or bottom) in market direction do not happen simultaneously for all sectors or indices, and the exact date of culmination depends on the particular definition for the Market -- some would argue, for example, that from a breadth perspective the Nasdaq top in 2000 actually began in 1998.
>>The forecast of 2012, however, is also directly correlated with the Mayan Calendar end-date for the Longcount -- a very old, complex, and sophisticated system of measuring time which happens to coincide exactly with a very important alignment of the Earth and Sun with the central core of the Galaxy. This topic and detailed correlations with a number of key astrophysical, geophysical, and sociopolitical cycles affecting human activities and markets are explored in a special paper which also examines the underlying forces causing the periodic advances and declines at large degrees. Cycles is scheduled for release in early 2002..


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gesamter Thread:

• Was wird passieren, ein Vorschlag für die nächsten Jahre: LESEN! - Günter, 22.11.2001, 14:25
  • Re: Was wird passieren, ein Vorschlag für die nächsten Jahre. QUELLE??? - DIRK, 22.11.2001, 17:03
    • http://www.polarpacific.com/Articles/Posts/nikkei.htm kann JÃœKÃœ mal was dazu sag - Günter, 22.11.2001, 17:34
      • Re: http://www.polarpacific.com/Articles/Posts/nikkei.htm kann JÃœKÃœ mal was dazu sag - JüKü, 22.11.2001, 18:45
        • Re: Jükü: http://www.polarpacific.com/Articles/Papers/financial2.htm ist auchvon - André, 22.11.2001, 19:22
          • Re: Jükü: http://www.polarpacific.com/Articles/Papers/financial2.htm ist auchvon - JüKü, 22.11.2001, 19:28
          • Re: Jükü: http://www.polarpacific.com/... / Hier meine Antwort - JÃœKÃœ, 22.11.2001, 20:06
  • der Dow hätte demnoch GANZ GROB bis dahin ein Potential von 25000-30000. - dira, 22.11.2001, 19:54
    • uups - dira, 22.11.2001, 19:57
      • Re: uups - JüKü, 22.11.2001, 20:09
  • Re: Was wird passieren, ein Vorschlag für die nächsten Jahre: LESEN! - Amanito, 22.11.2001, 21:52