Re: Jükü: http://www.polarpacific.com/... / Hier meine Antwort

verfasst von JÜKÜ, 22.11.2001, 20:06

Ich habe den Artikel jetzt genauer gelesen (nur die Hauptseite).
Ein entscheidender Absatz ist dieser, dem ich bekanntlich voll zustimme:

[i]In order to truly destroy a society's desire to invest in the sharemarket, there has to be some real and severe destruction of productive capacity to effectively ratchet long-term expectations lower, or some long-lasting major diversion of public interest -- probably due to fear for their lives as in a war-torn environment -- that takes capital away from the confidence of long-term equity investments. [/i]

„to truly destroy a society´s desire to invest in the Sharemarket...“ - dazu genügt eben nicht ein heftiger Crash à la 1987, auch keine „mittlere Baisse“, sondern da muss was Größeres passieren.

Auch dem Folgenden stimme ich zu:

[i]In contrast, where the problem really is purely a matter of financial market excess -- eg. 1987, 1997 -- the market drops, the economy stumbles a bit (or not), and life continues. The current situation (2000-2004) represents a very big financial excess, in part because of the size of the general exposure, breadth of holdings, and margin leverage, but also because of the absolutely huge derivative overlay and systemic vulnerability of financial institutions.[/i]

Und das Folgende ist ja bekanntlich auch meine Meinung:

[i]The first stage of this rolling valuation adjustment was focused on the tech industry, especially overhyped dotcoms without earnings but also more established sectors like semiconductors and software that were hit in the first wave of reduced IT spending. Senior industrials were not significantly impacted during this phase, and are expected to eventually rally from their DEC01 lows to reach new record highs and complete their Cycle III upswing since 1980 before they too suffer in the Cycle IV collapse. [/i]

Das entspricht meinen Dow 13.000.

Nun kommt ein Absatz, dem ich bisher nicht zustimme:

[i]While the overall effect of the manoeuvre -- Tech Crisis 2000 / Growth Crisis 2001 / Rebound 2002 / Derivatives Crisis 2004 -- will be substantially larger than the global losses experienced with the Asia Crisis 1997 or Brazil/Russia/LTCM Crisis 1998, the U.S. economy is also of a size and strength able to take this hit and remain standing, if temporarily dazed. It will take all of its financial sophistication and manipulation and plain old chopping, but the current excess is not bigger than the whole and the burst bubble will be digested. Economically, the situation will be more difficult than 1982, 1987, 1990, or 1994, but less than the 1930s. In fact, it will be on the same scale as the 1970s in Price and briefer in Time (ie. sharp Cycle IV versus flat Cycle II but both about -50%).[/i]

„less than the 1930s“ - das eben bezweifle ich, bisher jedenfalls. Aber plausibel ist es sicher, dass nämlich „die Große Krise“ erst 2012 - 2032 kommt:

[i]At the end of the next decade, following a period of growth very similar to the 1980s or 1990s, a rare event like California falling in the ocean because of a natural earthquake or a nuclear strike will be not just a deeper disaster but one that is not so easily overcome. The 20 years or so between 2012-2032 could well be very similar to 1929-1949 as global tension and conflict build. Note that technological advancements will probably accelerate rather than stop during this period, due to military competition, but that does not mean capital will be willing to pay up when surrounded by an uncertain political future.[/i]

Wie gesagt, plausibel - und durchaus passend zu diesem Szenario, das ja nicht neu ist (entnommen aus meinem Artikel in Bernecker´s Wegweiser 2000:

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gesamter Thread:

• Was wird passieren, ein Vorschlag für die nächsten Jahre: LESEN! - Günter, 22.11.2001, 14:25
  • Re: Was wird passieren, ein Vorschlag für die nächsten Jahre. QUELLE??? - DIRK, 22.11.2001, 17:03
    • http://www.polarpacific.com/Articles/Posts/nikkei.htm kann JÃœKÃœ mal was dazu sag - Günter, 22.11.2001, 17:34
      • Re: http://www.polarpacific.com/Articles/Posts/nikkei.htm kann JÃœKÃœ mal was dazu sag - JüKü, 22.11.2001, 18:45
        • Re: Jükü: http://www.polarpacific.com/Articles/Papers/financial2.htm ist auchvon - André, 22.11.2001, 19:22
          • Re: Jükü: http://www.polarpacific.com/Articles/Papers/financial2.htm ist auchvon - JüKü, 22.11.2001, 19:28
          • Re: Jükü: http://www.polarpacific.com/... / Hier meine Antwort - JÃœKÃœ, 22.11.2001, 20:06
  • der Dow hätte demnoch GANZ GROB bis dahin ein Potential von 25000-30000. - dira, 22.11.2001, 19:54
    • uups - dira, 22.11.2001, 19:57
      • Re: uups - JüKü, 22.11.2001, 20:09
  • Re: Was wird passieren, ein Vorschlag für die nächsten Jahre: LESEN! - Amanito, 22.11.2001, 21:52