- Die Wellen nach Eric von Baranov - ManfredZ, 03.12.2001, 19:34
Die Wellen nach Eric von Baranov
Hallo,
hat jemand schön von der Weiterentwicklung der Wellen nach Baranov gehört? Hört sich recht interessant an.
GruĂź,
Manfred
Development of Technical Analysis - Templates
Overview
Having heard and read a bit of Elliott and observing that the market often runs in five wave patterns, Eric decided to apply some these methods to short term market timing. Eric, quickly discovered it was difficult to count waves and reproduce results. Many times what could be seen in retrospect (Monday morning quarterbacking) was very difficult to apply in"real time". A more rigorous approach was necessary if reliable and reproducible results were to be obtained.
One of the major problems with Elliott is determining when exactly a wave is complete. Resistance points can be helpful but there is no real way to determine in advance when a move is complete. Much like point and figure charting timing is lost. But yet there were times when Elliott wave patterns can be seen clearly on charts and even used to make successful trades. So Elliott and his subsequent followers were on to something but were also missing some key ingredients.
Methodology Development
To remedy the lack of reliability Eric took a more structured approach and began to look for patterns that repeated in a consistent fashion. From simple observation it became clear that patterns of threes and six's show up frequently in all markets. As an experiment take a chart of any market and count off the weeks in groups of threes from a significant top or bottom. Very often other significant tops and bottoms fall into these patterns of threes. This can be shown to be true even when carried out over a number of years. Of course there are any number of times when tops and bottoms fail to line up correctly. So it is obvious that while there is some cycle running through the market it is not consistent or of an exact fixed time frame. This rules out Fibbonacci and other fixed or progressive cycles.
Before exhausting this method Eric expanded it using a combination of three and six and reversed direction at the end of each count. When the trend diverged in the first part of the count, it was cut short and the trend counted in reverse. Doing this Eric isolated periods where the market would have some consistent runs. Various markets would display noisy behavior for a long period of time then again fall back into a pattern of threes and sixes.
The daily pattern is very difficult to get right due to market noise and there seems to be a day lost at the end of the year. But the longer time frames such as weekly and monthly charts exhibit less noise and thus display consistent patterns. Monthly patterns are easy to identify and repeat consistently. Of course there is a solid reason for this with stocks as quarterly profits are reported in clusters.
Well this was useful but not accurate enough to trade the market profitably for extended periods. Like Elliott there is no way to anticipate when one of these patterns will end.
Elliott Five Wave Count
At this point Eric looked for a way to group these patterns together. Counts of three and six did not work with groups. It simply did not fit into the changes of the primary trend. Other numbers were tried for the count of the groupings such as nine and twelve in hopes of finding a super set of three and six that would tie the whole thing together. None of these counts worked.
At this point Eric returning to the Elliott Wave Theory tried groupings of five. First a simple five up count and a three down count was tried but again the turns in the primary trends did not track. So finally a pure five up and five down count was settled on. A complete move consists of five groups in either direction.
Hidden Waves
The continued popularity of the Elliott Theory shows there is some value. The random failures and mis-counts prevents the theory from satisfying the criteria for a valid technical method. Typical with traditional Elliott analysis is the common problem determining the length of a wave and the exact count. This causes a lot of recounting and backtracking. There are many successful Elliott Wave practitioners but they are constantly missing their counts and then adjusting them. Follow any group discussion on the subject and you will observe considerable disagreement in the counts even among experienced traders. To compensate the"abc" waves and a complex set of rules have developed almost insuring that no single count is completely valid.
The use of a fixed count
"Hidden waves" uncover sideways patterns that no self respecting Elliott theorist would count. The adaptation satisfies Technical Methods principle number three. Periods of failure should generated important information. In this case failures help determine future trends. A failure from the expected in the Template indicate future moves in the direction of the failure. Failure analysis goes beyond Template Analysis. For a more complete explanation and use of divergences in predicting changes in trend and market volatility see the section on Failure Analysis..
Overlays
Templates
To obtain additional information and accuracy, Eric combined the counts from different time frames. Since the same patterns can be tracked on weekly and monthly charts, it is possible to find a bullish pattern on a monthly chart and then break it down into component counts on the shorter term charts.
For example, assume the monthly count was positive. In this case there will be more periods in the weekly count where a market moves strongly higher. The reverse is true as well. However, when the two patterns conflict the tendency then becomes for a market to trade sideways.
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Principles of Template Analysis
1. Counts are made in a strict sequence
2. The longer the time frame the more the weight given to the trend
3. When the direction of the counts across timeframes combine strong primary moves can be expected
4. When the direction of component counts are in conflict sideways markets are common
5. The market is perfect. If the current count does not coincide with market behavior then the count is wrong.
Application
All the theories in the world will not make money unless they can be applied to the market in"real time". It is easy to look back on a chart pattern and say that such and such happened. Without the ability to project the future the method of analysis is useless. Template analysis remains our strongest tool in making future market projections. Eric has used these methods to make many accurate projections for the stock market often years in advance.
Provided are several examples of past cases to describe how a template analysis can be deployed. Presented in stages the examples provide a step by step guide of the rules.
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Copyright © 1974-2001 Kondratyev Wave Theory by Eric Von Baranov, Sausalito, CA USA Charts created with Super Charts 4.0 or Meta Stock 6.5
<ul> ~ http://www.kondratyev.com/reference/methods/wave_method.htm</ul>
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