Re: Barton Biggs von Morgan Stanley meint, wir seien VERRÜCKT:

verfasst von leibovitz, 04.12.2001, 19:40

seit wann ist biggs der tech guru von stanley?.. ist doch marryyy meeeker
na egal.. hier der original text:

The latest views of Morgan Stanley Strategists and Economists worldwide
Topic Analyst/Ext
Global Strategy Barton Biggs (New York) 762-7150
Rejuvenation Takes Time
I still believe the selling panic last September after the
Attack probably marked the primary lows of this bear
market. However, the celebration currently going on is both
excessive and premature. I think there is still a lot of
“event” risk out there, and I don’t believe in the V shaped
recovery in the economy or profits. (I am not as euphoric as
some about a V in Afghanistan either.) Most earnings
estimates for next year are too optimistic for a low-nominal-
GDP world. The consensus believes monetary and fiscal
stimulus will work, and that this cycle is no different from
its last two or three predecessors. Greenspan’s halo,
although tarnished, is still intact. By contrast, I believe that
lower interest rates and liquidity won’t revive the American
consumer, who is wounded and will remain impaired for
several years. Rejuvenation takes time. The bust we have
had is not commensurate with the size of the boom. Steve
Roach is right. The world economy is still deteriorating and
there is no pricing power. The equity markets haven’t got
that message yet.
It is pure madness that the tech bubble is being inflated
again. Orders appear to have finally stabilized, but
medium-sized, marginal technology names are selling at 8
to 10 times sales and 50 times earnings. There has still not
been a institutional or public capitulation, and stocks in
America in particular are not cheap, although there are some
bargains in other parts of the world. I still look for a test of
the September lows in the months to come. History teaches
that most primary bear market bottoms experience a retest
and that the final low comes not with an intense selling
climax but rather after selling has been exhausted.


<center>

<HR>

</center>

Thread gesperrt

 

gesamter Thread:

• Barton Biggs von Morgan Stanley meint, wir seien VERRÜCKT: - Der letzte Grund, 04.12.2001, 17:45
  • Re: Barton Biggs von Morgan Stanley meint, wir seien VERRÜCKT: - Sascha, 04.12.2001, 17:57
  • Re: Barton Biggs von Morgan Stanley meint, wir seien VERRÜCKT: - XERXES, 04.12.2001, 18:56
    • Re: Barton Biggs von Morgan Stanley meint, wir seien VERRÜCKT: - leibovitz, 04.12.2001, 19:42
      • sorry ist ja die china karte hier über: Global: Recession Verdict - leibovitz, 04.12.2001, 19:47
  • Re: Barton Biggs von Morgan Stanley meint, wir seien VERRÜCKT: - leibovitz, 04.12.2001, 19:40