Re: Barton Biggs von Morgan Stanley meint, wir seien VERRÃœCKT:

verfasst von leibovitz, 04.12.2001, 19:42

>Er sollte sich einmal die woechentlichen Kommentare seines Chef-Oekonomen, Steven Roach durchlesen!

und das schreibt roach heute:

China feels the global heat. Chinese export growth has
gone from 28% in 2000 to just +0.1% on a year-over-year
basis in October 2001; this has taken real GDP growth
down from 8.0% in 2000 to 7.0% in 3Q01.

Less exposed to the IT cycle. China’s export growth
compression has been limited compared with ASEAN
economies -- mainly because it is far less exposed to IT
exports than its Asian neighbors. IT exports to the US made
up only about 30% of total Chinese exports in 2000 --
about half the 50% to 80% exposure elsewhere in Asia.
Exposure to the consumer. Consumer-type products
account for fully 50% of total Chinese exports, three to four
times the shares in other Asian economies; the post-
September 11 capitulation of the American consumer
suggests that Chinese export comparisons are about to head
into negative territory.

GDP growth to test 7% threshold. Barring any new
sources of economic growth, further slippage on the export
side of the equation could push overall Chinese GDP
growth below the all-important 7% threshold for a while;
the downside should be limited to about 6.5%.
Two key consequences. With social stability concerns
paramount in China, a sustained growth shortfall may mean
the economy does not absorb all the jobs lost through
restructuring of state-owned enterprises. Sub-7% growth
could also exacerbate the recent tilt back to the cusp of
deflation.

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gesamter Thread:

• Barton Biggs von Morgan Stanley meint, wir seien VERRÃœCKT: - Der letzte Grund, 04.12.2001, 17:45
  • Re: Barton Biggs von Morgan Stanley meint, wir seien VERRÃœCKT: - Sascha, 04.12.2001, 17:57
  • Re: Barton Biggs von Morgan Stanley meint, wir seien VERRÃœCKT: - XERXES, 04.12.2001, 18:56
    • Re: Barton Biggs von Morgan Stanley meint, wir seien VERRÃœCKT: - leibovitz, 04.12.2001, 19:42
      • sorry ist ja die china karte hier über: Global: Recession Verdict - leibovitz, 04.12.2001, 19:47
  • Re: Barton Biggs von Morgan Stanley meint, wir seien VERRÃœCKT: - leibovitz, 04.12.2001, 19:40