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Mix-Ansicht- Current Account Deficit Shrinks - leibovitz, 12.12.2001, 17:17
Current Account Deficit Shrinks
Current Account Deficit Shrinks
The current account deficit fell $12.6 billion to $95.0 billion in Q3, in line with economists' expectations, although the statistical discrepancy was unusually large (E405). As with other reports, insurance payments played a large part in the drop. Nevertheless, it was the third consecutive decline, a trend evident in the merchandise trade figures due to the economic slowdown (E0402). Among other notables, U.S. direct investment abroad climbed to a record $52 billion at the same time that U.S. investors sold a record $14 billion in foreign securities (E407). The 4-quarter total deficit narrowed to $431 billion, or 4.2% of GDP (E562).
Import Prices Continue To Fall
Import prices fell 1.6% in November following the prior month's large 2.4% drop (E0423). Expectations were for a 0.8% drop. As in October, a plunge in petroleum import prices of 10.8% accounted for most of the drop. Ex-petroleum, import prices fell 0.6%, its tenth consecutive decline. A broad-based 2.3% decline in industrial supplies and materials led the drop in non-petroleum import prices (E0424). Prices for autos dipped for the first time in two months by 0.1%, while capital goods prices recorded its eighth consecutive month of declines. On a y/y basis, import prices are a record 8.9% below its year-ago level (E0421).
Export prices fell 0.4%, the ninth month of decrease this year (E0426). Agricultural export prices fell for the third consecutive month, down 1.1%, while non-ag prices fell 0.4% in November. On a y/y basis, export prices are now 2.5% below a year ago, and agricultural prices have broken below its uptrend channel (E0422).
By region, import prices from the Asian NICs fell 0.1% in November, and are down 4.9% over the past year. Prices from Europe and Japan were also down in November by 0.5% and 0.2%, respectively.
This report continues to indicate falling inflationary pressures both in the U.S. and abroad. We expect the inflation rate to fall in the coming months. -- SW
MBA Indexes Down
Reacting to higher interest rates, the Purchase Index fell 2.3% and the Refi Index dropped over 10% to its peaks seen earlier in the year (B566).
Consumer Comfort Steady
The Consumer Comfort Index remained at -3 last week, as personal finances and buying climate were unchanged (E0196). The state of the economy improved two points, as 24% of Americans see an improving economy -- the most of the year. Furthermore, those saying the economy is getting worse dropped to 37%, down 11 points in the last month. This is important because the state of the economy component has been the weakest of the three.
Jet Fuel Demand Rises Again
Jet fuel demand increased for the third consecutive week last week, rising 2.2% all due to increased civilian usage. Stocks are under control with the I/S ratio back down to 26 days.
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