Board-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht- Looking Forward — and Back / morgan stanley - leibovitz, 13.12.2001, 11:54
Looking Forward — and Back / morgan stanley
Mayree Clark, Global Research Director
Dennis Shea, Global Equity Research Director
Michael Blumstein, North America Research Director
Most of us would likely prefer jumping ahead to the outlook
for 2002 to dwelling on the personal and professional chal-lenges
of the last 12 months. But in addition to presenting
our analysts’ views of the coming year, as is customary in
this issue of Investment Perspectives, we want to emphasize
some bright spots in an otherwise somber 2001.
A major development last year was the focus on integrity
throughout our industry. “Best Practices for Research,” the
guidelines for analysts adopted by the Securities Industry
Association, underscore our commitment to our clients and
the highest ethical and professional standards in the conduct
of our business. We believe these Best Practices, which
Morgan Stanley played a key role in drafting, will help re-pair,
re-establish, or reinforce (as the case may be) the pub-lic
trust and confidence that are at the core of efficient
capital markets. For analysts and for investors, the demand
for greater disclosure and transparency represents a major
positive. True, as Byron Wien observed recently, the col-lapse
of Enron shows that there is a long way to go. But we
are convinced that the global movement toward greater fair-ness
and transparency in capital markets is unstoppable and
that Morgan Stanley’s clients will reap the benefits as in-vestors
focus on the merits of in-depth research.
We had several department-wide initiatives for our custom-ers
in 2001, among them a new electronic weekly, Global
Investment Perspectives, with the best of our thinking
around the world plus links to related material in Research-Link.
Right after September 11, we published a special
issue of Perspectives giving our macro and sector analysts’
revised outlooks. Later that month, researchers and other
specialists prepared four distinct scenarios to help our cli-ents,
Managing Uncertainty in a Changing World. We
deepened our long-standing commitment to global sector
work in The Competitive Edge and MacroScope. In re-sponse
to client requests, we revised our rating system in
April, adding a volatility rating, and we are considering
more extensive revisions in the not too distant future. We
collaborated intensively with our fixed income colleagues
and continued to encourage our analysts, both the youngest
and the most experienced, to produce the best intellectual
work for our clients.
In North America, Ken Posner “surfed the loss wave” for
credit-card issuers and with his global colleagues built a 5-year
industry model in 20 top markets. Art Soter led global
bank analysts in a comprehensive valuation study, which is
ongoing. Lloyd Byrne zeroed in on the risks of investors
“not getting paid” in the E&P sector, while Scott Davis had
timely calls on the packaging sector. Rich Bilotti’s long-term
model for advanced services showed a bright future for
cable, and Steve Girsky spotted growing risks at automak-ers’
credit subsidiaries. Our global pharma team published
a detailed handbook of the world’s drug pipeline; Glenn
Reicin nimbly captured the shifting prospects for defibril-lators.
Simon Flannery, Chris Stix, and Alkesh Shah nailed
the telcos’ capital spending picture and the outlook for tele-com
equipment and data networking, while Simon and Jeff
Camp downgraded Qwest after a detailed review with
Trevor Harris cast doubt on its sustainable growth. Survey
work by our analysts covered the field, from Chuck Phil-lips’s
ongoing CIO surveys to Brian McGough’s survey of
travel agents and Bill Pecoriello’s online polls of beer
drinkers and “malternatives” news. Alice Schroeder’s daily
updates after September 11 were must reading for insurance
investors.
The year 2002 will be a time of transition. Our chief US
strategist, Byron Wien, takes up other challenges at Morgan
Stanley; fortunately, we have a deep bench — and a highly
talented successor in Steve Galbraith. There are other
changes as well; one of us (Mayree Clark) is leaving re-search
to assume responsibility for global private wealth
management. We are confident, however, that equity re-search
at Morgan Stanley will remain a powerful platform
that makes money for our clients for many years to come.
We are fortunate that the devastation of September 11 was
not far worse at our firm, but we will never forget the indi-viduals
we know, including some at Morgan Stanley, who
were struck down that day. We are grateful for the support
of our friends last year and the encouragement that helped
us through the aftermath of the tragedy.
Our best wishes for 2002.
www.msdw.com
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