Fundamentals von Heinz Blasnik/ CB

verfasst von ManfredZ, 11.01.2002, 18:03

sorry for the belated reply: imo, the weight of the evidence still favors deflation. it is true that rates and certain commodities have recently risen and the broad monetary aggregates have been expanding greatly. however, the velocity of money has continued to decline, and ECRI's future inflation gauge has broken below both its '90 and '94 lows as Bob Bronson of LW has pointed out. note in this context that even in deflationary '31, bond yields actually rose (as the bankers began to hoard gold).
the problem with understanding a deflationary era is that few of us have witnessed one. most people are conditioned by the 70's stagflation, just as in the 70's they were still conditioned by the previous deflation era, and didn't know that inflation could flare up in spite of recession.
note though that gold stocks have done very well in BOTH the 30's deflation AND the 70's inflation. there are several studies that show that gold's purchasing power historically increases in deflationary periods, so gold mining stocks make a good investment (better than physical gold as it were, since an increase in gold's purchasing power doesn't necessarily equate to a big rise in its nominal price in a deflation).
btw., let me add that i'm not yet 100% convinced about the deflation argument. after all, the Fed is well aware what it means to have a post bubble environment to contend with, and it's possible that it will be way more aggressive in its easing campaign than is now indicated or expected. so perhaps inflation is the contrarian bet.
regarding the gold price itself, i believe a huge change has taken place in this market, without very many people noticing. first of all, gold looks technically good. there's no way around the fact that it has produced a fractal of the '85 bottom, is well contained by either flattening LT or rising ST moving averages to the downside, and is making higher highs and higher lows. but the most important factor in the market is of a fundamental nature: the fall in ST interest rates has killed the contango in the futures market, making forward selling unattractive. no-one is intituting fresh forward sales, on the contrary, there has been a net DECLINE in outstanding forward sales for the first time since the mid 90's last year. this means that about 400 tons of annual supply have practically disappeared overnight. i predict that this factor alone is enough to propel gold beyond the $300 barrier this year. and with today's miners having cut costs to the bone for years, that means the price rise is falling to the bottom line unimpeded. i have always liked the big unhedged South African miners GOLD and HGMCY best, due their leverage to the PoG and their vast reserves. HGMCY's year-on-year 4th quarter earnings are likely to triple, which illustrates their leverage nicely (the collapse in the Rand has been very helpful of course, since their input costs are in Rand, and their revenues in dollars). note btw, that the gold price denominated in a large basket of non-USD currencies is in a raging bull market since 1999.

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• lol Bloomberg war eben Silber+Gold Analyse von Martin Siegert - R1, 11.01.2002, 14:56
  • Re: lol Bloomberg war eben Silber+Gold Analyse von Martin Siegert - ManfredZ, 11.01.2002, 15:36
    • warum empfehlen Analyste nie vorher? (ist keine ernste Frage) *g* (owT) - R1, 11.01.2002, 15:56
      • Re: warum empfehlen Analyste nie vorher? (ist keine ernste Frage) *g* (owT) - ManfredZ, 11.01.2002, 17:23
    • Re: Silber mit dem Hintern handeln! - JLL, 11.01.2002, 16:18
    • wen meinst du mit"alle"? JüKü? (owT) - wheely, 11.01.2002, 16:19
      • im Abo-Forum werden schon fleißig die Puts gehandelt (owT) - ManfredZ, 11.01.2002, 16:25
        • Re: Hast du nicht gerade eben deinen Abonnenten geschrieben, dass du.... - JÃœKÃœ, 11.01.2002, 16:46
          • Re: Hast du nicht gerade eben deinen Abonnenten geschrieben, dass du.... - ManfredZ, 11.01.2002, 17:11
            • Re: Hast du nicht gerade eben deinen Abonnenten geschrieben, dass du.... - JüKü, 11.01.2002, 17:28
              • Re: Hast du nicht gerade eben deinen Abonnenten geschrieben, dass du.... - ManfredZ, 11.01.2002, 17:49
    • Nö, nicht jeder springt. - Standing Bear, 11.01.2002, 16:38
      • Re: Nö, nicht jeder springt. - Chrizzy, 11.01.2002, 16:41
      • Re: Nö, nicht jeder springt. - Chrizzy, 11.01.2002, 16:42
        • Re: Nö, nicht jeder springt. - Standing Bear, 11.01.2002, 17:55
          • Re: Nö, nicht jeder springt. - Chrizzy, 11.01.2002, 18:05
      • d.h. du rechnest.... - wheely, 11.01.2002, 17:02
        • Re: d.h. du rechnest.... - Standing Bear, 11.01.2002, 17:58
      • Re: Nö, nicht jeder springt. - Diogenes, 11.01.2002, 17:05
        • Re: Nö, nicht jeder springt. - Standing Bear, 11.01.2002, 18:12
          • @Standing Bear, Nö, nicht jeder springt. - DowJames, 11.01.2002, 19:00
            • Re: @Standing Bear, Nö, nicht jeder springt. - Standing Bear, 11.01.2002, 21:35
          • Re: Nö, nicht jeder springt. - Diogenes, 11.01.2002, 19:01
      • Re: Nö, nicht jeder springt. - ManfredZ, 11.01.2002, 17:25
        • Re: Nö, nicht jeder springt. - ManfredZ, 11.01.2002, 17:27
  • Fundamentals von Heinz Blasnik/ CB - ManfredZ, 11.01.2002, 18:03