- Zwangsvollstrekungen von US Häuslebesitzern auf Rekordkurs, ansonsten alles OK? - marsch, 04.12.2001, 19:10
Zwangsvollstrekungen von US Häuslebesitzern auf Rekordkurs, ansonsten alles OK?
<font size=4>An Up and Down Recession</font>
Foreclosures Hit Record Yet New Car Sales Soar
By Daniela Deane and John M. Berry
Washington Post Staff Writers
Tuesday, December 4, 2001; Page A01
As layoffs spread across the country, the portion of U.S. homeowners falling into foreclosure reached its highest recorded level in the third quarter, and the percentage slipping behind in their mortgage payments was the highest in 10 years, the Mortgage Bankers Association said yesterday.
At the same time, economists said other economic figures showed that while some Americans are suffering in the recession that began last spring, others have been left relatively unscathed. Consumer spending rose by a record amount in October, and motor vehicle sales remained strong in November, according to reports released yesterday.
"The pain is not equally distributed," said Michael Swanson, senior economist at Wells Fargo & Co., the largest mortgage originator in the country."If you haven't lost your job, if you've haven't taken a salary cut, the recession hasn't affected your choices that much. People who have lost their jobs have been greatly affected."
Lenders began foreclosure proceedings against 0.38 percent of homeowners in the third quarter, the highest level since they began tracking the figure in 1972, although not much higher than it was during several quarters in the mid-1990s, the bankers association said. Meanwhile 4.87 percent of homeowners had fallen at least 30 days behind in their payment.
Mortgage experts predicted the numbers will get worse before they get better if unemployment, the key factor affecting the rate of foreclosures and delinquencies, continues to rise, as economists expect it will.
"These figures are a reflection of the fact that we are in a recession," said Bob Van Order, chief economist at secondary mortgage giant Freddie Mac."They might be a bit more than we expected... maybe a little stronger, maybe a little quicker, but it's the direction we expected."
Wells Fargo's Swanson said the rising foreclosure rate also reflected, in part, the riskier loans made to homeowners in recent years. As the economy has slumped, a lot of people"have decided it's a better financial decision to go through foreclosure, let the bank have the house, rather than try to sell it themselves."
But while some consumers struggle to hold on to their houses, others went on a spending spree in October. And several other economic reports released yesterday, all somewhat stronger than expected, suggested to some analysts that the bottom of the recession may come sooner rather than later.
The Commerce Department said consumer spending rebounded in October, rising a record 2.9 percent after plunging 1.7 percent in September in the wake of the Sept. 11 attacks. Much of the October gain was due to the surge in motor vehicle sales, but spending on nondurable goods such as food and gasoline also rose.
After adjustment for inflation, total consumer spending in October grew at a 6.1 percent annual rate from its third-quarter average. That large gain convinced many analysts that consumer spending will be a significant plus for economic growth in the final three months of this year.
While November motor vehicle sales slipped noticeably from October's record pace of a 21.5 million annual rate, which was fueled in part by offers of no-interest financing and other dealer incentives, they appeared likely to have run at a 17.5 million to 18 million rate, still a strong number.
"Taken alone, November would be considered a strong sales month," said Dana Saporta of Stone & McCarthy, a financial markets research firm."It suffers only in comparison with October's phenomenal -- and incentive bloated -- selling rate. Indeed, if we ignore October, we'd have to look back to March 2000 to see a selling rate comparable to that of last month."
But while consumers were spending freely, the recession was evident in the fact that personal incomes were flat for the second month in a row and were only slightly higher than in June. With payroll employment and the number of hours worked both down in October, the key wages and salaries component fell 0.3 percent. And with income flat while spending jumped, savings as a share of disposable personal income fell 0.2 percent.
Meanwhile, the National Association of Purchasing Management said its index, which tracks conditions in the manufacturing sector, rose last month to 44.5 from October's attack-depressed 39.8. The increase was nearly twice what many analysts had anticipated, though it still left the index below 50 -- indicating that manufacturing activity was declining -- for the 16th consecutive month.
A sub-index of new orders rose by a strong 10.5 points, to 48.8. This fact, together with the overall report,"represents clear and tangible evidence that the events of Sept. 11 did not spark a whole new sustained downturn," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, N.Y."The attacks undoubtedly worsened the existing situation, but the immensely favorable economic fundamentals -- very low interest rates, an advanced inventory correction and plunging energy prices -- are now pushing industry back onto the recovery track."
Norbert J. Ore of Georgia-Pacific Corp., chairman of the NAPM's survey committee, said the gain in new orders was"among the largest one-month increases in the history of the index. The trend is definitely in the right direction, but it is too soon to claim an imminent recovery."
Nevertheless, Ore added,"based on this report, the sector regained a significant portion of the output lost in October."
Yet another report from Commerce showed that October construction spending rose a strong 1.9 percent when most analysts had expected the fifth monthly drop in a row. All three construction components -- residential, nonresidential and public -- increased.
Kenneth Simonson, chief economist for the Associated General Contractors of America, called the report"a pleasant surprise, particularly because September and August figures were revised upward from last month's report." He added that"as a result, instead of continuing the downward drift seen in the previous four months, October's total was the highest since May."
Simonson said he still expects"industrial, office and hotel/motel construction to weaken as current projects are finished," and that some state and local government construction plans could be hurt by budget problems resulting from falling tax revenue and extra spending related to terrorist threats.
"Overall, I believe an economic upturn has begun or is about to. But the impact on construction will be very uneven, both by sector and by region," Simonson said.
© 2001 The Washington Post Company
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