- Allianz shorten? - chiron, 25.07.2007, 12:08
- Re: Meltdown allerorten - dottore, 25.07.2007, 12:32
- Re: Meltdown Siemens - dottore, 25.07.2007, 16:23
- Kaufgelegenheit? - Re: Meltdown Siemens - weissgarnix, 25.07.2007, 16:51
- Re: 'Fundamental'? (o.Text) - dottore, 25.07.2007, 17:06
- Re: 'Fundamental'? (o.Text) - weissgarnix, 25.07.2007, 18:54
- Re: 'Fundamental'? / sicher, die Erde dreht sich auch ohne Enron ;-) (o.Text) - - Elli -, 25.07.2007, 19:06
- Re: 'Fundamental'? (o.Text) - weissgarnix, 25.07.2007, 18:54
- Re: Kaufgelegenheit? - Re: Meltdown Siemens / GE? - ---Elli---, 25.07.2007, 18:56
- OK- Re: Kaufgelegenheit? - Re: Meltdown Siemens / GE? - weissgarnix, 25.07.2007, 19:19
- Re: was an GE so fasziniert, - Ghandi, 25.07.2007, 19:35
- Re: GE? / du sprachst von 5 Jahren - - Elli -, 25.07.2007, 20:06
- auch OK - Re: GE? / du sprachst von 5 Jahren - weissgarnix, 25.07.2007, 20:10
- Re: auch OK - Re: GE? / du sprachst von 5 Jahren - Ghandi, 25.07.2007, 21:01
- Re: auch OK - Re: GE? / du sprachst von 5 Jahren - weissgarnix, 25.07.2007, 23:32
- Re: auch OK - Re: GE? / du sprachst von 5 Jahren - Ghandi, 25.07.2007, 21:01
- auch OK - Re: GE? / du sprachst von 5 Jahren - weissgarnix, 25.07.2007, 20:10
- 3Dinge - TESLA, 26.07.2007, 10:37
- gute Replik, danke - Re: 3Dinge - weissgarnix, 26.07.2007, 11:04
- Re: 3Dinge - von wegen - - Elli -, 26.07.2007, 14:49
- OK- Re: Kaufgelegenheit? - Re: Meltdown Siemens / GE? - weissgarnix, 25.07.2007, 19:19
- Re: 'Fundamental'? (o.Text) - dottore, 25.07.2007, 17:06
- Kaufgelegenheit? - Re: Meltdown Siemens - weissgarnix, 25.07.2007, 16:51
- Re: Meltdown Cerberus - dottore, 25.07.2007, 17:13
- Re: Beschleunigt - Vooorsicht, Kinnings! - dottore, 25.07.2007, 19:48
- Blow-off.............ade / gartm - SilVisconti, 25.07.2007, 22:48
- Re: Yen unwinding? Wo gibt's new credits? - dottore, 26.07.2007, 16:39
- Hier hat Cerberus ev. auch noch 1,7 Mrd Euro irgendwie frei gemacht.. - LenzHannover, 25.07.2007, 23:36
- Chrysler zieht 12 Mrd. Dollar-Kredittranche zurück (mL) (o.Text) - chiron, 26.07.2007, 00:00
- Blow-off.............ade / gartm - SilVisconti, 25.07.2007, 22:48
- Re: Beschleunigt - Vooorsicht, Kinnings! - dottore, 25.07.2007, 19:48
- Re: Meltdown Siemens - dottore, 25.07.2007, 16:23
- die Citigroup tut es auch - Ventura, 25.07.2007, 13:35
- Heute 16.00 Uhr: Juni-Zahlen"Existing Homes Sales" - Giraldus, 25.07.2007, 14:04
- Re: Ungut! - dottore, 25.07.2007, 16:14
- Re: Allianz shorten? - Uwe, 26.07.2007, 22:16
- Re: Allianz shorten? - chiron, 27.07.2007, 01:27
- Re: Meltdown allerorten - dottore, 25.07.2007, 12:32
Blow-off.............ade / gartm
-->>FREUNDE, LEUTE, COUNTRYMEN - jetzt im Ernst: Es sieht überall SAU-mäßig aus! Rate zur größtmöglicher Vorsicht!
Hallo!
Gartm. hat seinen blow-off bereits wieder revidiert:
"THE YEN IS AGAIN VERY STRONG as
very rapid, and we suspect, very massive unwinding of the
Yen carry trade continues. This unwinding, which began
earlier this week, has now become quite severe. Indeed it
is severe enough that as
the crosses are
unwound, the dollar is
actually being bid-up
relative to the EUR,
the British Pound
Sterling, the Aussie
and New Zealand
dollars et al....
currencies that had
previously been bought
against the Yen.
SHARE PRICES, GLOBALLY, HAVE
PLUNGED, and most notably in N. America, where
US and Canadian shares have fallen on average a rather
shocking 2.2%. It made no difference what industry, nor
what balance sheet, nor what quality were the stocks in
question, all fell and all fell sharply. Once again, when the
police come to the house of ill repute, even the good girls
and the piano player go to jail, or as our friends in
Australia say,"in a bus crash even the pretty girls get
hurt." Yesterday was a global equity bus crash, and pretty
girls everywhere were hurt and hurt badly.
We fear that the markets are now beginning to understand
that even if the sub-prime situation is controllable (and we
think that it is) the implications like ripples from a rock
tossed in the water shall expand far and wide. Bank
lending will become far more restrictive, for gone are the
days of"no-doc" loans and/or mortgages, to be replace by
the days of massive-doc loans instead. Where loans were
made previously on the flimsiest of promised to pay, and
generally without collateral, now shall come the time of
personal guarantees, large collateral requirements, and
strict payment schedules. Bridge and/or mezzanine
financing is now a thing of the past, and rather than bank
lending offices being sent out to push loans, they will
instead be sent out to call old loans instead. Such is the
nature of the credit beast as it moves cyclically from
expansion to contraction. We were the former; we are
now the latter...and those who think otherwise are naive.
In that environment, share prices cannot do well. Indeed,
in that environment, share prices will do very poorly.
Expanding P/e multiples will give way to contracting ones,
even as earnings themselves shall soon begin to
deteriorate. We are not Cassandra here this morning. We
are instead a returning scout, having looked over the
horizon and seen an enemy that we now have great
reason to fear and wish to prepare for. It seems only
reasonable."
Gruß, Sil
<ul> ~ http://www.cfsfutures.com/images/E0067301/072507.pdf</ul>
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