- KONDRATIEFF REVISITED - R.Deutsch, 19.06.2001, 14:07
KONDRATIEFF REVISITED
Antal E. Fekete, one of your prominent Cafe members,
has served commentary at The Dos Passos Table
entitled:
KONDRATIEFF REVISITED
GOLD AND THE LONG-WAVE ECONOMIC CYCLE
This talk was given at the Babe-Bolyai University,
School of Business Administration,
Sf. Gheorghe, Romania, on May 2, 2001.
"The long-wave inflation/deflation cycle discovered
by Kondratieff is generated by huge speculative
money-flows to and fro between the commodity market
and the bond market. The oscillation pattern of
these flows reflects changes in the propensity to
hoard. The problem of the long-wave cycle is thus
reduced to the question: what is causing the
fluctuations in the propensity to hoard, and how
can it be contained?"
"Since 1981 the world appears to be in the grips
of a deflationary spiral which has not run its
course yet. Some liquidation has taken place, but
the worse seems still to come. The politicians and
economists are congratulating each other for having succeeded"squeezing inflationary expectations out
of the system". They squeezed nothing of the sort.
Inflationary and deflationary spirals are caused
not by expectations, but by actual money-flows to
and fro between the bond and the commodity markets.
The international monetary system is still the
same rudderless ship it was in 1971, and it is still
exposed to the same monetary storms. The only
difference is that the direction of the gale
has changed."
Very timely for what might be staring us in the face
economically.
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