- US-Wirtschaftsdaten: BIP (endgĂĽltig), Consumer Sentiment, Chicago PMI, ECRI WLI - COSA, 29.06.2001, 20:46
- Re: US-Wirtschaftsdaten: BIP (endgĂĽltig), Consumer Sentiment, Chicago PMI, ECRI WLI - JĂĽKĂĽ, 30.06.2001, 02:37
US-Wirtschaftsdaten: BIP (endgĂĽltig), Consumer Sentiment, Chicago PMI, ECRI WLI
Hi!
Zum Wochenabschluss noch ein paar Daten:
~ zuerst das endgültige GDP - Bruttoinlandsprodukt für das erste Quartal, das heute mit +1,2% Wachstum veröffentlicht wurde. Noch einmal 0,1% weniger als die letzte Schätzung. Negativ zu Buche schlagen dabei rückläufige Exporte, Abbauen unerwünschter Lagerbestände und Abflauen von Business Investments, während die Verbraucher mit ihrer Kauffreude, das BIP nicht ganz so schlecht aussehen liessen. Häuser und Autos wurden nach der Statistik gekauft. Der implizierte Preisdeflator liegt bei 3,2% im Vergleich zum vorherigen Quartal.
Link zum BIP Q1</ul>
~ weiter mit dem Chicago PMI - dem Chicagoer Einkaufsmanager-Index für den Juni, der mit 44,4 angegeben wurde - zuletzt noch 38,7 -, seit 6 Monaten der höchste Stand. Nach diesem Index befindet sich die Wirtschaft zwar immer noch im Rückwärtsgang, aber nun deutlich reduziert.
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<ul> ~ die Zahlen:
~ The Chicago Purchasing Managers rose to 44.4% in June, its highest level in six months. This marks a significant improvement in the health of the Chicago region’s manufacturing industry in that although it does continue to contract, it is doing so at a much reduced pace.
~ The indices for production all rose this month, suggesting that the worst of the downturn may now be past. Though the backlog of orders index jumped significantly to 40.5%, its weak level suggests that the recovery will still be slow to take shape.
~ The employment index rose to 35.6% this month. This suggests a continued decline in employment among the survey’s respondents.
~ The prices paid component fell to 51% in June. Cost pressures are once again fading as oil prices remains below their peaks and weak demand has resulted in lower prices for many other commodities.
~ Link zum Chicagoer Einkaufsmanager-Index</ul>
~ dann wäre da noch das endgültige Consumer Sentiment der Uni Michigan für den Juni, der vorläufige Wert hatte noch bei 91,6 (im Mai bei 92,6) gelegen, wurde heute dann aber mit 92,6 angegeben.
AuszĂĽge aus der Mitteilung von Yahoo[i] ~ The University of Michigan's final June consumer sentiment index, which measures consumers' attitudes about the economy, rose to 92.6 in June from 92.0 in May. While consumer sentiment has bounced around within a narrow range in recent months, it has rebounded from its recent trough of 90.6 scored in February, its lowest level in nearly five years.
~ Early in the year, consumer sentiment fell off sharply as expectations for the economy going forward slipped. Now, as the economic outlook brightens, Americans are feeling some of the pain they had anticipated six months ago, analysts said.
~ But in an indication that slowdown was still weighing on consumers' pocketbooks, the University of Michigan's current conditions index, which measures how consumers feel about their personal financial picture, edged down to 101.6 in June from 102.2 in May. The preliminary reading was also 102.2.
~ The expectations index, a gauge of how Americans feel about the twelve months ahead, rose to 86.9 in June from 85.4 in May. The preliminary reading was 84.9.[/i]
<ul> ~ die Zahlen:
~ The ECRI Weekly Leading Index slipped a second consecutive week, falling to 120.6 from 121.2 the previous week. The six-month smoothed growth rate, a better gauge of the index’s trajectory, held steady at -1.5% after rising steadily for nearly three months.
~ A decline in mortgage applications weighed on the index in the latest week. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s index of mortgage applications slipped 5.4% during the week due to slowing purchase and refinancing activity.
~ The third consecutive fall in weekly jobless claims tempered the decline in the index. Initial claims during the latest week fell below the 400,000 mark for the first time since early May. Nonetheless, jobless claims are still running 26% higher than this time last year.
~ Financial indicators were a mixed bag. In the week ending June 22, the S&P 500 gained about 1%, largely on hopes that monetary easing by the Federal Reserve would help to shore up economic growth. Meanwhile, yields on 10-year Treasury bonds sank 13 basis points during the week as traders trimmed their inflation expectations on the heels of reassuring comments from Fed officials. The yield spread between short- and long-dated government securities narrowed accordingly.
~ Industrial material prices and corporate bond spreads held relatively steady during the week and thus had very little impact on the index.
~ Link zum ECRI FrĂĽhindikator</ul>
Fazit: Eine leichte Erholung der US-Wirtschaft scheint möglich. Aber nach meinem Geschmack wird zu viel auf einen konsumfreudigen Verbraucher gebaut.
ein schönes Wochenende wünscht
Cosa
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