- Looming Signs of a Global Recession - Pancho, 03.07.2001, 20:16
- Re: Das Wichtigste daraus in Kürze... - Tobias, 03.07.2001, 20:54
- "Schluck-auf" ist angesagt, Tobias ;-) - Ghandi, 03.07.2001, 21:54
- Re: Das Wichtigste daraus in Kürze... / dottore hat es schon... / Tobias - JÃœKÃœ, 03.07.2001, 23:33
- Re: Das Wichtigste daraus in Kürze... - Tobias, 03.07.2001, 20:54
"Schluck-auf" ist angesagt, Tobias ;-)
Danke für die Zusammenfassung und passend dazu ein
Artikel aus der ´Straits Times´ aus Singapur,
übernommen von Bloomberg.
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Asia weighed down by $3.7 trillion in bad loans
Economists fear that regional growth may be hampered as banksare leery of handing out fresh loans
HONGKONG - Asia has a US$2 trillion (S$3.65 trillion) problem: bad loans at banks that will keep the region from a sustainable economic rebound.
In Thailand, one-fifth of all loans are in default; in Indonesia, about one-third; and in the Philippines, a quarter, according to estimates from governments and analysts.
Banks in Asia will have to work through these loans before lending afresh. Until that happens, the region may not see a repeat of the 8 per cent annual growth rates chalked up in the early 1990s.
Four years to the day after Thailand devalued the baht, a move that sparked a regional recession, Asian economies are again reeling. While policymakers have been quick to lay the blame for current economic woes on falling exports to the US, the real root of their problem lies closer to home.
'Bad loans are going to affect growth for years,' said Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein chief economist for Asia Tatha Ghose.
'When the current downturn is over and people need to invest again, financial systems will be bottlenecked because banks will not be able to provide financing.'
Economies from Japan to Thailand and Singapore to the Philippines shrank in the first quarter. South Korea's growth is expected to slow by more than half this year, and Indonesia and Malaysia expect their economies to slow. That is a far cry from the past two years.
Booming exports to the US helped pull South Korea, Indonesia and Thailand out of the 1997-98 recession. The return to rapid growth papered over the need to clean up the mess left behind and allowed governments to avoid the social and economic upheaval of closing down deadbeat borrowers.
Japan is a prime example of the economic damage that can be wrought when loans go sour. An 11-year slump has left lenders with as much as US$1.1 trillion of bad and risky loans, equal to almost a quarter of gross domestic product in the world's No 2 economy.
The problem is also deterring foreign investment, particularly in South-east Asia. Foreign investment in Asia, excluding Japan and China, fell by about 17 per cent between 1997 and last year to just over US$50 billion. A lot of money was reallocated to China.
'The rest of the world has a better understanding of what's happening in these economies' now than it did in 1997, said Nomura International banking analyst Kelvin Chan. 'They don't really care about South-east Asia.'-- Bloomberg News
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