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Crude Oil Falls on Expectations OPEC Won't Cut Output Enough
By Mark Shenk


New York, Jan. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell, extending a two-week decline to 15 percent, on expectations that OPEC and other producers won't remove as much oil from the market as they promised.

Oil exporters agreed to reduce supply starting this month to prop up prices, though every day that passes shows abundant inventories and weak demand, industry reports show. Oil has fallen 38 percent from a year ago as recession in the U.S., Japan and Germany slowed demand. OPEC exceeded its output targets each month since last January.

``I'm skeptical that we will see much of a cutback soon, given OPEC's past record,'' said Chris Schachte, a trader at GSC Energy Corp. in Atlanta. ``We won't see them meet targets in January, and though there may be improvement in February, we won't know until March,'' when Russia may start to boost exports.

Crude oil for February delivery fell as much as 71 cents, or 3.8 percent, to $18.15 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest price since Dec. 14. Prices have been at or close to one-month lows all week.

In London, Brent crude oil for March settlement fell as much as 50 cents, or 2.6 percent, $18.53 a barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which pumps a third of the world's oil, secured agreements from rival exporters such as Russia and Norway to reduce supplies by 2 million barrels a day, or 2.6 percent, to prevent a glut.

The 10 OPEC members with output quotas, all except Iraq, exceeded their targets by 629,000 barrels a day in December, a Bloomberg survey showed.

Russian Fuel Shipments

Russia, the second-largest exporter, ended limits on fuel oil exports earlier this month, clearing the way for refiners to raise shipments of refined products. Higher shipments of products such as heating fuel would negate the reduction in exports of crude oil, analysts said.

U.S. crude oil inventories rose 4.1 million barrels, or 1.3 percent, to 314.1 million barrels last week, the highest level since July 20, the American Petroleum Institute said Tuesday. Supplies were 8 percent higher than year-earlier levels.

Heating oil supplies fell 1.1 million barrels to 60.9 million, leaving them a third higher than year-earlier levels, according to the report. The second-warmest November on record and mild weather during the first half of December had kept heating demand low.
Mild weather in the Northeast, heating oil's biggest market, will keep heating demand 16 percent lower than normal this week, according to Weather Derivatives of Belton, Missouri.

More Mild Weather

Temperatures will be normal or above normal in the eastern half of the U.S. during the five-day period beginning next Tuesday, according to the National Weather Service.

Heating oil for February delivery fell as much as 1.61 cents, or 3 percent, to 51.6 cents a gallon in New York. Prices were 36 percent lower than at this time last year.

Prices may rally in the days ahead because of buying by hedge funds and other speculators, analysts said. Those investors had sold 44,373 crude oil futures contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of Jan. 8, a government report Friday showed.

The large ``short'' position, almost triple levels last May, signaled that speculators have little more selling to do and were vulnerable to losses during a rally, traders said.

``This market has fallen quite hard in a short amount of time,'' said Phil Flynn, a senior energy trader at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago.


Beste Grüße an die Runde

K C





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