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David Gergen, editor at large of U.S. News & World Report, engages Samuel Huntington, professor of international relations at Harvard University, author of The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order.
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DAVID GERGEN: Sam, Jeane Kirkpatrick points out that in the 20th century the greatest outbreaks of violence have occurred within civilizations, the First and Second World War, the Holocaust, Hitler, Pol Pot, Mao Zedong. Why do you believe that in the 21st century clashes will be between or among civilizations?

SAMUEL HUNTINGTON, Author,"The Clash of Civilizations": Because the world has evolved and, in particular, western civilization has evolved, and those clashes that you mentioned were all within western civilization. Civilizations evolve over time, and most scholars of civilization, including people like Carol Quigley, argue that they go through periods of warring states, and eventually evolve into a universal state. The West hasn't reached its universal state as yet, although its close to it, but it certainly has evolved out of its warring state phase, which it was in for a couple of centuries.

DAVID GERGEN: And we talk about the West. Let's be very clear, because you say that is the dominant civilization today--the United States and Europe. What are the nations of the West or big blocs of the West?

SAMUEL HUNTINGTON: Well, as you mentioned, it's the United States, North America, and Europe, Western Europe. And the big question for the West, of course, and to the Europeans is, what other countries, which were formerly part of the Soviet bloc, should be incorporated into western institutions? And the answer from a civilization point of view is very clear. It is the countries which historically have been part of western Christendom going back a thousand years or more.

DAVID GERGEN: You say in the book that the West is and will remain for years to come the most powerful civilization. Yet, its power relative to that of other civilizations, is declining. Why?

SAMUEL HUNTINGTON: Well, because the other civilizations are reasserting themselves one can make the argument that actually the peak of western power occurred early in the century, in say the 1920's by some indices. In 1920, the West ruled huge amounts of the world. Over half the world's territory and half the world's population were directly ruled by western governments. Well, that's no longer the case. There's only one non-western territory that I can think is still run by a western government, and that's Hong Kong. And that's going to change very shortly. And so in terms of territorial control, in terms of economic preeminence, the western share of the gross world product is declining as Asian societies in particular develop economically. And hence, the overall western power is gradually fading. It will take a long time, and certainly the West will remain the dominant civilization well into the next century, but the decline is occurring.

DAVID GERGEN: What are these other civilizations? There are six or seven you say.

SAMUEL HUNTINGTON: Well, I think the most important ones are orthodox civilization with Russia as a core state, Islamic civilization which stretches from Morocco to Indonesia, and which lacks a core state, but there are several active states within Islam clearly. China--Chinese civilization--Japan, which is really a civilization all unto itself; Hindu civilization, where India, of course, is a preeminent power; Latin America, that I would classify as a separate civilization, although some people wouldn't; and Africa, which is, again, a very disorganized collection of countries which have yet to cohere into any sort of real consciousness but may well do so in the coming decades under the leadership of South Africa.

DAVID GERGEN: You make the argument that the danger to the United States, the challenger civilizations to the United States, Russia, the orthodox civilization, is not one of the challengers. You have two challengers. You have Islam and China.

SAMUEL HUNTINGTON: Right. Right.

DAVID GERGEN: As the great challengers to the United States in the future and to the West in the future.

SAMUEL HUNTINGTON: Right.

DAVID GERGEN: Why will they challenge us, and what form will that challenge take?

SAMUEL HUNTINGTON: Well, I think as far as China is concerned, it's the economic dynamism of China, which has already made China more assertive in world affairs. One doesn't know whether that economic growth will continue at its recent rates, and China may well go into an economic slide. But if that growth does continue, China will certainly become more and more assertive and will expect to be treated as a major, if not"the" major world power, and certainly as the hegemonic power in East Asia. The United States has a tradition of opposing the domination of either East Asia or Western Europe by a single power. That was, after all, what the war with Japan was about. How will we deal with China's efforts to dominate East Asia? That's one question.

DAVID GERGEN: Right.

SAMUEL HUNTINGTON: And then there's a question of Islam where the challenge is somewhat different because it stems primarily from the demographic dynamism of Islam, the very high birth rates that have existed in most Muslim countries, and the fact that this has generated an immense youth bulge in most Muslim countries, where the proportion of the population between the ages of fifteen and twenty-five exceeds 20 percent of the total. And when that happens, sociologists and historians have pointed out, there's usually trouble of some sort. And this is the reason for both the trouble within Islam and for the troubles between Muslims and their neighbors in large part, including what has happened in Yugoslavia.

DAVID GERGEN: The clear warning of your book is that the clashes we should be most concerned about are low intensity clashes with the Islamic civilization and the possibility of a big war with China.

SAMUEL HUNTINGTON: Right.

DAVID GERGEN: What are the implications of your argument about clashes coming between civilization? What are the implications for United States foreign policy?

SAMUEL HUNTINGTON: Well, I think the United States first of all has to recognize the world for what it is. And I think we've been in something of a denial mode, and we are carried away by the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of history, which hasn't happened, and hence have not been very quick at adjusting to this terribly complex world where's there's ethnic rivalry of all sorts, and ethnic rivalry becomes most dangerous, of course, when it is between groups from different civilizations because then, as in former Yugoslavia, or the Caucasus or Central Asia or the subcontinent, not to mention the Middle East, there's always the danger of escalation. And so I think American foreign policy clearly has to focus on the intercivilizational conflicts that will challenge us, and we also have to keep our guard up and I think try to reinvigorize relations with our European allies, which I think this administration has rather neglected.

DAVID GERGEN: So pull closer to Europe?

SAMUEL HUNTINGTON: Yes. Promote the unity of the West.

DAVID GERGEN: Strengthen the western civilization, itself.

SAMUEL HUNTINGTON: Right. Which means not just in military and economic terms but in, also in moral terms and in commitment to western values.

DAVID GERGEN: Right. And move away from the assertion that our values are universal.

SAMUEL HUNTINGTON: That's right.

DAVID GERGEN: That we can spread all these other values elsewhere. Many would challenge that. They would say, well, that's--you know, if we drop that assumption, after all, we--as you acknowledge--

SAMUEL HUNTINGTON: Yes.

DAVID GERGEN: --we are a missionary nation.

SAMUEL HUNTINGTON: Right.

DAVID GERGEN: We're a missionary culture. We like to bring democracy.

SAMUEL HUNTINGTON: Well, I think we should try to. I think we should try to. I think clearly the United States, as well as other western nations, should stand by their commitments to human rights and democracy and should try to influence other countries to move in that direction. But we have to recognize the limits on our power and the fact that our ability to bring about changes in other societies is, is declining. And Asian societies and Muslim societies are increasingly resentful of our efforts to induce them to adopt our values.

DAVID GERGEN: A final question. Do you--say we have this terrible choice coming up about whether we're going to try to contain China in some fashion, so it doesn't become--

SAMUEL HUNTINGTON: That's right.

DAVID GERGEN: --the dominant player in Asia, or that we should accommodate ourselves to China emerging as the dominant player, something that we've never been willing to accept in our foreign policy over the last hundred years or so.

SAMUEL HUNTINGTON: Right.

DAVID GERGEN: Your conclusion seems to be we should accommodate--we should allow China to emerge as the dominant power because, otherwise, we risk a great war.

SAMUEL HUNTINGTON: Well, I think the worst thing would be for us to stumble into a great war without realizing it, without being the--without being prepared for it. I think it makes sense to try to contain China and limit the expansion of Chinese influence in other Asian countries. The great problem there is we have to have the cooperation of those other Asian countries. It was one thing to contain the Soviet Union in Europe because Britain, France, and Germany were all willing to join in. But will Japan and other Asian countries be willing to join in the containment of China? I'm rather dubious.

DAVID GERGEN: This--your book has stirred up a great controversy. I wish you well in the weeks ahead as you take your message elsewhere. But thank you very much.

SAMUEL HUNTINGTON: Thank you, David. I appreciate it.

Quelle

Hier haben wir neben Brzezinski einen weiteren geistigen Wegbereiter für das was noch kommen wird.


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