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Leading indicators up 0.6% in Jan.
Diffusion index above 50 for first time in 21 months
By Rex Nutting, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 10:36 AM ET Feb. 21, 2002
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - The index of leading economic indicators rose 0.6 percent in January, the fourth increase in a row, the Conference Board said Thursday.
The increase"is very positive and suggests gathering economic momentum," said Ken Goldstein, economist at the board.
"The strong signal from the indicators is that the recession is ending and that the recovery could be more vigorous than earlier anticipated," Goldstein said.
The leading index rose a revised 1.3 percent in December, the board said.
The leading indicators are designed to help forecast turning points in the economy.
The coincident index was flat in January after rising 0.1 percent in December. The lagging index fell 0.2 percent in January after falling 0.3 percent in December.
The coincident-to-lagging ratio, which is seen as a good forecast for turning points, has been up four months in a row."This underscores the strength of the leading index and indicates a likely economic recovery, barring any unexpected negative events," the board said.
In the past six months, six of the 10 indicators in the leading index have risen, the first time in 21 months that more than half of the indicators were positive. In those six months, the index is up 2.2 percent.
In January, six of the 10 indicators rose, led by vendor performance, consumer expectations, jobless claims and building permits. The negative contributors were factory hours, stock prices, capital goods orders and consumer goods orders.
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