Energy News
Der Anstieg der Rohöl- und Produktenpreisen kann weiter gehen. Das fundamentale Umfeld spricht immer mehr für weiter ansteigende Preisverläufe bei Rohöl und Produkten (siehe unten). Die technischen Indikatoren haben bereits im Vorfeld frühzeitig auf diese Entwicklung hin zu festeren Notierungen hingewiesen.
Die Raffineriemargen fallen weiterhin"bescheiden" aus - Raffineriecuts bewirken jedoch einen sukzessiven Abbau der Produktbestände. Die Preisstrukturen bei den Rohöl- und Produktenpreisen haben sich weiter verbessert und untermauern somit weiter ansteigende Kursverläufe bei Rohöl und Produkten. In Verbindung mit der fahrfreudigen Verhalten der US Bürger und den spannungsreichen Krisenherden (IRAK/naher Osten) haben die Rohöl-und Produktnotierungen sicher noch einiges vor sich.
nice evening
K C
03/13 13:35
Gasoline Rises to Six-Month High as U.S. Inventories Decline
By Mark Shenk
New York, March 13 (Bloomberg) -- Gasoline futures rose to a six-month high after an industry report showed an unexpectedly large drop in U.S. inventories last week.
The 1.6 percent drop in supplies reported by the American Petroleum Institute was triple the size that analysts expected. Refineries last week slowed production to 85 percent of nationwide capacity, a two-year low, at a time when they normally increase supplies for the warm-weather months.
``There is a big bounce in the U.S. economy, which is resulting in greater fuel use,'' said Phil Flynn, a senior energy trader at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. ``Demand should be healthy in the months ahead, and I bet we will see it reach records this summer as Americans take to the roads.''
Gasoline for April delivery rose as much as 1.46 cents, or 1.9 percent, to 80 cents a gallon on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest price since Sept. 19. Prices have surged 39 percent this year. Futures represent wholesale prices.
An 8.8 percent rally in futures last week spurred the biggest jump in U.S. retail gasoline prices in two years, according to the U.S. Energy Department.
Pump prices rose 7.9 cents in the week ended Monday to a nationwide average of $1.22 a gallon. It was the biggest weekly increase since March 2000.
Some cities, including Los Angeles and Houston, saw costs rise more than 10 cents a gallon, the weekly survey of 900 filling stations showed. Prices still were down about 19 cents a gallon from a year earlier.
Refinery Shutdowns
Several refineries in Texas and the western U.S., including plants run by Valero Corp. and Marathon Ashland Petroleum LLC, were forced to shut down last week because of power failures and mechanical problems, analysts said. The shutdowns came as other refineries took some units out of service for planned repairs.
A 23 percent rally in crude oil prices this year helped send gasoline higher. Increased concern that the U.S. will attack Iraq as part of its war on terrorists has boosted prices that already were rising because of OPEC production cuts, analysts said.
Crude oil accounts for 36 percent of the retail cost of gasoline, according to the Energy Department.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will meet Friday and is expected to keep in place the output cuts it instituted at the start of the year. OPEC, which pumps about one- third of the world's oil, slashed its production targets four times in the space of a year in an effort to boost prices.
``OPEC has done the right thing to support prices,'' said Tim Evans, senior energy analyst at IFR Pegasus in New York. ``They may have gone too far, if stability was their aim.''
U.S. inventories of crude oil fell 443,000 barrels, or 0.1 percent, to 319.5 million barrels last week. It was only the second decline this year.
Higher Prices
Crude oil for April delivery rose as much as 45 cents to $24.65 a barrel in New York. Prices have gained 22 percent this year, reaching a 5 1/2-month high of $24.75 on Thursday.
In London, Brent crude oil for April settlement rose as much as 52 cents, or 2.2 percent, to $24.22 a barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange.
Inventories of distillate fuels, which include heating oil and diesel, fell 6.56 million barrels, or 4.9 percent, to 128.4 million barrels, the biggest weekly decline since Feb. 4, 2000.
Heating oil for April delivery rose as much as 1.51 cents, or 2.4 percent, to 65 cents a gallon in New York, the highest price since Oct. 12.
03/13 08:58
OPEC to Boost Oil Prices as Own Economies Stagnate (Update1)
By Alex Lawler
Vienna, March 13 (Bloomberg) -- OPEC members from Algeria to Venezuela, which rely on oil and gas sales to drive their economies, are preparing to boost prices this year to restart domestic growth, analysts said.
In Venezuela, 65 percent of the public wants President Hugo Chavez to quit after the nation's currency was devalued last month, the result of a weakening economy. Saudi Arabia faces an unemployment rate of at least 15 percent. Indonesia's budget deficit this year may total 43 trillion rupiah ($4.3 billion).
``There isn't really any oil-producing country that doesn't need a higher price today, except maybe Norway,'' said Robert Ebel, director of the energy and national security program at the Center for Strategic & International Studies in Washington. For OPEC, ``higher prices would be more than welcome. That's the fix they are in because of overwhelming reliance on oil.''
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries meets Friday, and analysts expect the group to maintain current output cuts that helped oil prices jump 22 percent this year. Concern the U.S. may attack OPEC member Iraq in its war against terrorism has also bolstered prices.
Expectations by traders for a turnaround economies in Europe and the U.S., which consumes a quarter of the world's oil, also helped lift crude oil.
A drop in oil prices to a two-year low in November because of a standoff between OPEC and rival exporter Russia left many analysts doubting that oil-dependent governments can raise sufficient revenue to cover spending this year. Russia later agreed to lower exports to help prevent a glut.
Algeria's oil minister, Chakib Khelil, in Moscow today said OPEC wants its price index between $22 to $28 a barrel, a goal suspended last year. Prices won't fall because of concern about the stability of Middle Eastern supplies, he said.
Outlook
``As long as there is uncertainty in the Middle East, we will see oil prices above $20 a barrel,'' Khelil said during a visit to Moscow.
OPEC's price index reached $22 Monday, its first time in the group's target range since September. In London, benchmark Brent crude oil was recently up 21 cents at $23.91 a barrel.
OPEC's 11 nations hold almost 80 percent of the world's known oil reserves yet pump only about 35 percent of its supply, restraining output to inflate prices.
For the world economy, prices have not yet risen to levels that cause concern.
``We're coming off last year's higher oil prices of between $25 and $30 a barrel, so at $20 to $25 a barrel, it's not yet a threat to inflation or economic growth,'' said Song Seng Wun, a regional economist at G.K. Goh Research Pte. in Singapore.
Prices will rise further, to $35 a barrel in the fourth quarter if OPEC maintains its present supply curbs for the rest of this year, the Centre for Global Energy Studies estimates. OPEC's secretary-general, Ali Rodriguez, and the oil minister for Qatar, Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah, have advocated such a move.
OPEC in December agreed to lower its production target by 6.5 percent, or 1.5 million barrels a day, from Jan. 1 through June after independent producers Russia, Norway, Mexico, Oman and Angola agreed to pare 462,500 barrels a day between them.
Low Quotas
The last round of reductions brought OPEC's official quotas to a 10-year low. OPEC nations routinely pump more oil than is targeted under the quotas, though the temptation to sell even more crude increases as oil prices rise, analysts have said.
The group has yet to renew last year's threats upon rivals such as Russia. Production by independent producers will outstrip growth in world demand for the second year in a row, with Russia grabbing the lion's share, according to forecasts from the International Energy Agency.
Oil consumption will rise by 420,000 barrels a day in 2002, while non-OPEC producers will boost output by 960,000 barrels, the IEA said. Demand growth of 100,000 barrels a day last year was the slowest rate since 1985.
Target
In December Moscow agreed to trim foreign sales by 150,000 barrels a day though March, and has yet to say if it will maintain the measure through June. Rodriguez has said he is ``confident'' it will.
Some investors speculate that oil demand later in the year may recover even more than expected now, allowing OPEC to pump more crude and raise additional revenue.
OPEC countries ``need over $20 oil to help balance their budgets, (but) a price of $25 would risk damaging the global economy,'' said Steve Thornber, who manages 1 billion pounds ($1.41 billion) in U.K. shares at Threadneedle Asset Management Ltd. ``OPEC is probably targeting the lower end of the $22 to $28 price band.''
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