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Noch etwas Unerfreuliches zum Lesen.
<font size="4"> Household Debt-Service Burden Rebounds In Q4 To Near Record High</font>
March 29, 2002
Those hard-working public servants at the Fed finally got around to publishing fourth-quarter stats on household debt-service burdens. And, as we predicted last December when the third-quarter data were released, the debt-service burden rebounded in the fourth quarter, as shown in Chart 1.
At 14.30%, the 2001:Q4 debt-service burden is just 8 basis points shy of the record burden set back in 1986:Q4. Why did the debt-service burden rebound? Arithmetically, because the numerator, required principal and interest payments, increased, and the denominator, disposable personal income, decreased. Why did disposable income drop? Because folks did not get another $600 or $300 check from George Bush in the fourth quarter as they did in the third quarter. Why did required principal and interest payments rise, especially in light of zero-rate car and truck loan financing deals. Firstly, anecdotal reports suggest that the majority of new motor vehicle sales in the fourth quarter was financed at some interest rate above zero. Secondly, even at a zero interest rate, there still are monthly-required principal payments on a car loan. So, given the 15.12% annualized growth in non-revolving consumer credit (the kind associated with motor vehicle loans) in the three months ended December 2001, there was a sharp increase in required principal payments.
Chart 1
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The debt-service ratio probably would have been even higher in the fourth quarter had it not been for the substitution of relatively cheap mortgage debt for relatively expensive revolving credit (e.g., bank credit-card debt). As Chart 2 shows, mortgage refinancing activity surged in 2001, especially in its fourth quarter, while revolving consumer credit flattened out. This suggests that the purpose of a lot of mortgage-refinancing activity was to consolidate debt. But as Chart 3 shows, refi activity has slowed significantly so far this year as mortgage rates have begun climbing again. Unless mortgage rates start falling again - not likely unless the economic recovery gives up the ghost, which would be a negative for disposable income - debt-consolidation activity is going to be much diminished going forward. And this means that"expensive" revolving credit is likely to resume faster growth. That would not be a factor working to lower the debt-service burden. <br />
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<i>Chart 2</i><br />
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Chart 3
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Kommentar: Legt man einen anderen Massstab der Verschuldung zu Grunde - die Verbraucherkredite bzw. die ausstehenden Kredite in Relation zum Einkommen ist der Stand Mitte der 80iger Jahre längst überholt.
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Cosa
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