Hallo yukon,

ich hab' tatsaechlich was gefunden:-)
Allerdings wird es hier nur beilaeufig erwaehnt (3. Absatz von unten)
Hoffe trotzdem, dass es Dir hilft.

Viele Gruesse
pecunia



Gold Update
Gold Commentary (June 12, 1998)

In any discussion of the future of Gold, or of the price of Gold, the first thing that
must be realized is that Gold is a political metal. In the true meaning of the word, its
price is"governed". This is true for the very simple reason that Gold in its historical
role as a currency is fundamentally incompatible with the modern worldwide
financial system.

Up until August 15, 1971, there has never in history been an era when no paper
currency was linked to Gold. The history of money is replete with instances of coin
clipping, printing, debt defaults, and the other attendant ills of currency
debasement. In all other eras of history, people could always escape to other
currencies, whose Gold backing remained intact. But since 1971, there is no
escape because no paper currency has any link to Gold.

All of the economic, monetary, and financial upheaval of the past 25 years is a
direct result of this fact.

The global paper currency system is very young. It depends for its continued
functioning on the belief that the debt upon which it is based will, someday, be
repaid. The one thing, above all others, that could shake that faith, and therefore
the foundations of the modern financial system itself, is a rise (especially a sharp
rise) in the U.S. Dollar price of Gold.


Gold - Commentary
Updated to June 12


Bar Chart - Daily


Bar Chart - Weekly


Open Interest For All Contract Months - Daily




How can this be?? We have rioting in the streets in Indonesia, a national strike in
South Korea, a confirmation of recession in Hong Kong, record high unemployment
in Japan, an incipient nuclear arms race on the Indian sub-continent, 150% interest
rates in Russia... the list is endless. Surely, with such chaos spreading to envelop
the world, the Gold price should not be falling - but it is, in $US (and Western
European currency) terms, at least.
Posted on May 29.
To the above litany of woe we can now add a confirmed Recession in Japan,
another crash dive in the Indonesian Rupiah, and the biggest one day market fall in
history in South Korea (-8.1% on June 12).

As reported last week in this commentary, Treasury Secretary Rubin has been
quoted to the effect that the present level of global financial instability is
"unprecedented". This week, Mr Greenspan has weighed in, stating during
Congressional testimony that the U.S. economy was in the best shape he had seen
in his 50 years of watching it. Then, Mr Rubin made another remark, this time about
the trials and tribulations of the Japanese Yen. He said, in effect, that the weak Yen
was a Japanese problem. The implication of this was immediately taken to be that
the U.S. wasn't going to do anything about it.

Contrast this position to the one Mr Rubin took two months ago, when the Yen was
threatening to fall through the 130 level against the $US. Then, Mr Rubin gave
explicit approval to attempts by the Bank Of Japan (BOJ) to support the Yen.
There was also strong circumstantial evidence that the U.S. Fed was in there
pitching right along with the BOJ.

Since then, the world has seen almost two solid months of global financial
"Summits", including the inauguration of what was called the"Willard Group". This
was a grouping of 22 nations which met at the Willard Hotel in Washington in late
April for the purpose of"fixing" the world's"financial architecture".

If events since then in Asia (and elsewhere) are any indication, it hasn't been fixed.
But as far as the U.S. is concerned, it ain't broken, and even if it is, it ain't affecting
OUR economy. Not according to either Mr Greenspan or Mr Rubin, and they are
supposed to know about these things.

The fact is that there is an economic and financial implosion going on in Asia the like
of which has not been seen since the darkest days of the 1930s. At present, there
are only two things preventing the situation from sliding into abject chaos. One is
the fact that Japan's stock market (the Nikkei) is tenaciously hanging onto the 15000
level. Below 15000, Japan's banks are transparently insolvent as measured by the
Capital adequacy ratios of the Bank for International Settlements (the BIS)

The other factor which is keeping some kind of a hold on the situation is the fact
that China has not (yet) devalued her currency. With the steadily weakening Yen,
and with renewed crash dives on other Asian currencies, the pressure on China is
becoming immense. In this context, it is very significant that Mr Clinton is about to
pay a State Visit.

Meanwhile, on the Gold front, as has been the case throughout the Asian Crisis, the
higher the level of financial tension and concern, the weaker the Gold price in $US
terms. At the moment, needing US Dollars desperately to purchase necessary raw
materials and producer goods and to service existing debts, Asians are scrambling
for Dollars. On top of that, flight capital is all heading in one direction - into cash
and Treasury debt.

We have seen the rumours that the Bank of Japan has actually been buying Gold.
We have seen no confirmation, however (nor do we expect to see any). There is no
doubt that right now, Asia and most of the rest of the world outside Europe is
putting ALL its eggs in one basket. That is the classic recipe for a market bubble.

There is little left over to go into Gold. And although individual consumption of
physical Gold is still rising in the U.S., it remains minuscule in comparison to the
funds going into the markets. The latest reports are that the combined holdings of
all domestic US equity mutual funds has now exceeded $US 5 TRILLION.

Coupled this with the fact that the U.S."investment funds" are once again in hard on
the short side of Gold (see this Reuters article in Yahoo), the metal has not been
able to hold up under the onslaught, not in $US terms anyway. In terms of Asian
currencies (and in the $A - $C - $NZ) however, Gold is holding up very well
indeed.



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