Quelle: Realmoney.com
Den Chart kann ich leider nicht posten, aber ausser zwei Bergen (einer 1991 einer jetzt) ist da nicht viel zu sehen.
Es geht um die Zinsdifferenzen zwischen den T-Bonds und den Junk Bonds, welche momentan rückläufig sind.
Ausserdem sank die default rate ein kleines bisschen von 10,6 auf 10,3 Prozent.
Alles noch keine Zeichen für einen Aufschwung, aber eine temporäre Besserung wäre möglich.
Although spreads (the difference between the yield on the Merrill Lynch High Yield Master II Index and the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond) have narrowed significantly since I first highlighted the high-yield bond sector last October, they're still quite wide by historical standards. Last October, the spreads were as high as 914 basis points, close to the record 974 basis points reached in the last recession in January 1991. As of May 31, the spread had narrowed to 643, but it could still have further to go if the economy and corporate earnings continue to improve. Historically, high yields have had a 300- to 400-basis-point yield spread over Treasuries when market conditions were better. The chart below shows the spreads dating back to 1985.
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